Blog Anthology, Posts 138 - 150

***Special Note*** I have moved my primary blog to www.LaneBailey.com. I will post much less frequently on here, and those posts will primarily be these recaps pointing back to the other site. I'd like the thank everyone for reading this blog over the last few months. I enjoy writing it, and it is icing on the cake that others are reading it. The blogger platform has been very good for me, but I needed something a little different, that is why I have the address change. ***I look forward to seeing you on the other site.***

Once again, I have a little discrepancy in the numbers. This time, it’s because of the platform change and now there are actually numbers next to the list on the back end… I must have mis-counted previously. Hopefully that jazz is behind me.

The next post in the series was about one of the biggest football games of the year in south Gwinnett County. Football Night in America… ok, Lilburn, GA chronicled the experience of the Parkview v. Brookwood game. All of us had a great time, including the future student.

For a Saturday post, I decided to answer the question about What has been in the Lane stable… Cars I’ve owned. The list was long. Hopefully, as I scan more pictures, more of these will make their way onto the blog and website.

For one of my sellers, I put together a multi-unit open house. I co-ordinated 7 units being open in his condo with the listing agents of the other units. Of course I had to do as much promotion as possible, including my blog.

I figured out that I was Going to Vegas for the NAR Convention a couple of days before it started. So, I packed my bags and jumped on a plane to Las Vegas.

Another lame post with I’m in Vegas.

Finally, I managed to deliver some real content. While at the convention, I learned about an exciting (ok, it’s exciting for those of us in the industry) different way to value homes and gauge the market. I announced my New pricing model while still in Las Vegas.

Because I had a great time in Las Vegas, I thought I would write a little bit about about my limited experience. If you are Thinking of visiting Las Vegas? it might be a good read.

My last Blog Anthology Post was next.

Just about everyone knows that we are in the midst of a water shortage here in Atlanta. The big question is Can we ease the water shortage? Everyone here is looking for the answer.

I like to write about my kid. So, he’s hit the “But that’s the way I want it to be” stage… related my three year old ignoring reality because it isn’t convenient, and other real estate agents doing the exact same thing. Come on folks. Be honest. Look at the numbers.

The Gwinnett County School system is looking at a major re-districting plan. I didn’t break it, but I did make sure that my readers would have the info.

Many real estate agents are trying to control the flow of information to the public. They don’t feel that people outside the industry should have unfettered access to listings and other information. In order to gain access to listings on THEIR websites, you have to tell them all about you. I announced my Open Property Search for Gwinnett County, GA and surrounding areas.

Finally… I still want people to tell me who they are. So, I announced the next day that you could Get 10% off at Lowe’s for telling me. I’ll still do it. you give me your real name, address and email, and i’ll mail you a certificate for 10% off at Lowe’s. I promise that I won’t spam the poo out of you, either. Not more than a couple of emails a month, and generally just one snail mail a month… or less. I just want to keep my name in front of you in case you decide to buy or sell a house… or know someone else that is looking to buy or sell a house.

MLS? Zillow? Trulia?

I ran across a blog post by Jay Thompson regarding a story in the Wall Street Journal about on-line home searches. He noted that in his area the WSJ had it wrong. He researched the numbers for the local MLS, Trulia and Zillow. His findings were that Zillow only showed about 10-31% of the listings shown on the MLS, and that Trulia only had between 69-90%.

So, I decided that I should take a look at a few zones in Gwinnett County.

• For 30087, I came up with 442 (FMLS), 457 (Zillow), and 482 (Trulia)

Hhmm… That seems odd. Reviewing 10 of the 33 pages of Trulia, I couldn’t find ANY FSBOs. How can they have more? Well, about 20% of the listings seem to have been sold or expired (and not relisted). I found a similar percentage on Zillow. This was based on a sampling. Furthermore, I found homes on FMLS that were not listed on either Trulia or Zillow. Trulia was a little more accurate.

• Next up, 30043. 842 (FMLS), 467 (Zillow), and 447 (Trulia)

But wait… there are still expired listings from agents, and homes that have already sold but not been updated in the system. I am finding some interesting listings, too. For example, there is a $7.9M property on Zillow (make me move…) that isn’t on the MLS.

• Finally, 30518… 576 (FMLS), 419 (Trulia), and 3673 (Zillow)

What? Ok, now I’m seeing something. Not one of the properties on the first page is in the MLS. Wow, they must have a lot of listings to peruse. Why would anyone use the MLS? Oh, wait… Several ARE in the MLS, just not in the ZIP code that I searched. All of the first page are listed in multiple ZIP codes on Zillow. So, how many houses are acually listed by Zillow in 30518? I don’t know, and I’m not going to wade through them to find out. But, if I were searching for a property in Buford, GA, I’d be a little annoyed that I had to wade through homes in Chamblee (15 miles and 45 minutes away), and Dallas (GA… but still over an hour away) to find houses that were actually in the area I was looking.

So, Lane, what do you think?

I think that Zillow sucks. I’ve done a previous post about their absolute lack of accuracy in their Zestimates in this area. Trulia is a much better choice here, but still not likely to give the latest up to date info, nor all of the options. FMLS is a better choice.

If you want to find a home in Gwinnett County, let me know. I can set you up on a search within FMLS that will go to a custom website… just for you. It’s called the Client Gateway.

Lane.Bailey on Yahoo IM

Or you can email me through my contact form at GarageHomesUSA (When I post my direct email, I get spammed. I apologize in advance for the extra step).

I look forward to hearing from you.

Is a clear sky blue?

Sitting down this morning getting my Fox News fix, I noticed a release by the NAR that has me re-thinking a position I have taken...

Here is the link to the NAR news release. To summarize, the position the NAR takes is that housing will start to pick up in 2008. Existing home sales will rebound, although new homes will lag for another year.

Well, I've been saying this for a few months (go back and look at my Gwinnett Market Reports if you don't believe me). And so, when the NAR says the same think, I need to re-assess my position.

Why, you ask?

Because the NAR started calling the bottom of the market and the rebound before the decline was in full swing. And that really ticks me off. I don't have a problem with putting a good spin on things. We all do it, and sometimes we just need to in order to remind people about the other side of the coin. Whether it is a Buyer's Market or a Seller's Market, it is a crappy market for half of the people in a transaction...

But, it's one thing to put your best foot forward, and quite another to say that everything is always perfect. I run numbers for my market... and I make predictions based on those numbers. When I am wrong, I acknowledge it, and when the news just sucks, I say it. I don't try to speak out of both sides of my mouth just to make sure that I'm covered.

Right now, if the NAR announced that skies were blue, I'd run outside to check.

Keep in mind that I am not only a member of my association in order to have access to the MLS (we don't have to be), but rather, I am currently active in the association (until tomorrow's meeting, I am the chairman of the RPAC committee). No, I'm not being deposed... my tenure is coming to a scheduled end.

So, what do we do about it?

Of the 33.548 real estate agents on A/R... as of a moment ago... I'd bet that the vast majority are members of the NAR. I know that the majority are ticked at the NAR over one thing or another. But, I would bet there are about 50 that are actually active in their local association. I bet half don't even know who is President of their local association, much less the state association.

So, get involved. Make your voice heard [I have NO idea this post was going this way].

And, when the NAR issues these reports, grab some salt, and run your own numbers.

Thoughts on the Foreclosure Bailout

Everyone has weighed in with their opinions about the proposed government bailout of some of the 1.2 million people facing foreclosure... I guess I'll toss out my nickel (side thought... if everyone that has offered an opinion actually gave up the nickel, WE could bail out the people facing foreclosure...)

I don't like government bailouts.

I'm a libertarian (I haven't joined the party, so I'm not a Libertarian). I don't believe that government has a role in every part of our lives. I think that the US Constitution is the guideline for the structure of our laws... and the role the government is supposed to play.

Even after looking at the Constitution twice, I can't find where it says that people that make bad decisions... mistakes even... should be bailed out by the government. And, that is what we are dealing with here. Banks lowered their standards for giving away money (and that is what they were doing, largely, giving away money). And consumers took out loans that they really didn't have a plan to repay.

So, who are the real victims here?

Is it the banks that are getting stuck with absolutely crappy loan portfolios? No. They got exactly what they deserved when some of them were driven right out of business.

Is it the borrowers that bought $500,000 homes and thought that their payments would remain at $1600/mo. forever? Or maybe the people that refinanced and bought bass boats and Suburbans with their "equity? Maybe it's the investors that bought property with 125% loans and then tried to put in minimal effort for maximum return with a flip? No, nope, and nuh-uh. Again, they ignored the risks so that they could do what they wanted to do. Being able to get someone to finance them only served as justification that their desires were not out of line.

Is it the mortgage backed security buyers? It wasn't, until the government decided to change the terms of the securities they bought.

But what about the fraud and predatory lenders?

Even running rampantly, fraud only accounts for a small percentage of total loan volume. So, it isn't much different than the teacher making everyone put their heads down on the desk because one kid in the class shot a spitball. And, many of the "predatory lenders" aren't that predatory. Sure, it is fun to talk about greed (a term that is vaporous to define anyway) and taking advantage of people in precarious situations, but we need to also keep in mind that the risk/reward equation means that these borrowers presented a higher risk. As some states have found out, when they "clamp down on predatory lenders" and cap rates or otherwise try to control market forces, they end up limiting choices for the very people they are try to protect.

So, instead of writing sweeping legislation, it would be much more effective to enforce current laws against fraud.

So, where does that leave us?

It leaves us with the only real victims being the one group that isn't being protected. And those that made irresponsible decisions being rewarded for those decisions. Instead of finding the 60,000 loans that might actually involve fraud, and prosecuting the people responsible, the government is looking at "fixing" 1,200,000 loans. And, while "fixing" those loans, nullifying agreed upon contracts.

It is a bad precedent.

Rock Crawling and Realty

I am about to perform a feat of magic... I am going to combine two such different things, that you won't believe I was able to actually pull it off...

In the first corner, we have a real estate transaction. Just about every time a home changes hands, there are obstacles and challenges. Sometimes the challenges are small, perhaps even inconsequential. Other times, they may seem insurmountable. Sometimes, they really are. But, often, those seemingly insurmountable obstacles are just that... seemingly.

In the second corner we have Rock Crawling. In this sport, a team made up of a driver and spotter navigate their vehicle through the course with finesse, muscle, power and experience.

The driver has obvious responsibilities. It is the spotter that is more mysterious. The spotter guides, cajoles, motivates and offers advice. It is the spotter holding the rope that allows the driver to control the vehicle beyond where it would roll of lose traction otherwise.

C'mon Lane... wrap this up...

In a real estate transaction, we have buyers, sellers, real estate agents, lawyers, titles, inspectors, mortgage brokers and the house. Any of them may present the obstacles, and all must be navigated to complete the deal and close the sale.

And, like the driver and spotter in a competition rock crawling event, trust and communication work hand in hand with experience and ability.

I'd love your comments.

And yes, I am trying to lay out a case to get my business manager (also known as My Lovely Bride) to let me get a competition rock crawler for the business to sponsor... and for me to drive.

Making the change... from Blogger to WordPress

It is a big change for me.

I started seriously blogging back in June on Active Rain. In July I picked up Blogger (Blogspot). I wanted an outside platform that would be more configurable. But, everything was fine with Blogger. I changed the theme a bit to better fit with my personality and subject. All was ok.

However, as I delved deeper into what I wanted to accomplish (in regards to my real estate business), I decided that I needed to offer something more than I would be able to offer with a static website. So, I started researching options.

In steps Joomla. Joomla is a content management system. It is kind of a cross between a blog and a website, but as a blog... not so great. I created GarageHomesUSA. This was what I wanted a site to be. it had depth and organization and was very configurable. Most of my blog material found its way there.

Then came the meltdown.

I've chronicled it previously on the blog, but because i selected a version of Joomla that wasn't stable yet, and because my host had me on the same servers as a few years ago, I had to change serveres with my host. I decided as I was doing that, that one of my sites was not really fulfilling a purpose. LaneBailey.com was just kind of there.

In an "aha!" moment, I decided that the blog needed to be there. I could afford to lose that site to bring my blog "in-house" so to speak. And so, I again dived in to do some research. Opting for another open source application, I chose to run WordPress on my domain. Again, it could function almost as a website as it is another CMS (content management system). However, it is a great blog, but less than optimal for a full site.

So, over the last week, I have been running both the Blogger and LaneBailey site parallel to each other. I will continue to do so for a while. After a bit, I plan on just summarizing my posts from LaneBailey to the Blogger platform.

So, if you are my reader...

I'd love for you to visit LaneBailey and hang out in the shop with me.

As always, I'd LOVE your comments and suggestions. I look forward to hearing from you.

Market Update for Gwinnett County, October/November 2007

As I announced back in the middle of November, there is going to be a format change beginning this month. I will be including Absorbtion Rates in the market reports now. This will give a clearer picture of the direction of the market, as well as help bring a bit of focus to the rest of the numbers. I’m also going to be stressing the listed/solds percentage to help give a better picture of the market conditions.

I also have corrected number for both September and October. The preliminary numbers are in for November, but they don’t look right yet, so while I will mention them, I would like to remind you that they aren’t solid numbers.

Let’s start with some of the classic information that I have been including on these reports.

The New listings data shows that new listings for both October and November were up about 2% vs. last year, while September was down about 5%. I’d really like to see the listings vs. last year drop to the negative numbers, because there is simply too much inventory for the level of buyer activity I see. However, because the final numbers aren’t in for November, I expect to see a rise in listings… exactly the opposite of what I want to see.

Solds for September were down 43%!!! Those numbers are holding up to the corrections. I hope that it isn’t right, but I have to assume now that it is close. However, the October number rebounded significantly. Closings were down 18% vs. last year. That is the best showing (vs. the same month the previous year) since April. To moderate, though, October 2006 was a particularly crappy month. November is down by 65%, but I know that those numbers will change in the coming weeks, so we will be revisiting that. With the exception of the August to September number*, it is easy to see the correlation between pendings and solds from month to month. If the pattern holds, I expect to see the closed transactions down around 20% for November when all is said and done.

While the preliminary numbers came in for November, both October and September average prices were changed. Those numbers are (with change from last year): September, $229,428 (-0.8%) October, $226,820 (+1.5%) November, $238,548 (+2.3%). I expect to see the November average drop to be more inline with the other numbers… but I can’t begin to guess where it will fall.

Now, let’s talk about the new numbers.

The uglier number is the percentage of solds vs. new listings. Let me start by saying that I have been tracking this number since January, 2005. The highest percentage since then was 85% in December of 2005. For the last few months, that number has been hanging around the mid 30% range. This means that one house sells for every three that come on the market. August through November show the percentage of solds vs. new listings to be 37%, 32%, 32%, and 19%. The November number is ugly, but I think I will need to revise that to be inline with the other numbers when I see something that is more final.

The Absorption Rate is how long, given the current market conditions, it would take to sell the current market inventory… assuming that there were no more listings added. This number is used by all types of businesses to gauge market activity vs. inventory levels. I’m not going to go into the formulas, because I don’t want to tell me competitors everything… I calculate the numbers for the 12 month average, six month average and three month average. Comparing the numbers gives an indication of the market heating or cooling. A balanced market usually has about a six month supply. Because these numbers are based upon November information, I expect all of them to drop slightly, with the most visible drop to be the three month average.

The 12 month average is 11.3 months of supply. The six month average slows to a 12.2 month supply of homes, while the three month average shows a 17.3 month supply. Of course, the three month average is the most volatile, and I expect to see it dropping to around 14 months after the rest of the numbers are in. That still isn’t good, but it is a bit better.

What that tells me is that the market is still cooling a bit, but it is close to flattening. It isn’t plummeting. I don’t have as much depth with these numbers as I do with the other numbers I’ve collected. My MLS doesn’t offer the historical statistics that I need for this calculation like they do for the other calculations.

I am still looking to see the market turn around in the spring. Of course, we won’t know it has turned until it has started back up. The best deals will be had before the turn. After the turn, investors and other buyers will have already started to bid up properties.

*The August to September pending to closed sale anomaly was a direct result of the Sub-prime Mortgage Meltdown. Many buyers found themselves unable to close after being approved for loans. After that time, the numbers went back to a more normal percentage of pending sales that followed through to closing.

Thanks, and look forward to my next report during the first week of January. Happy Holidays.

I know... it's officially a rut!

This is yet another technology post... and there are so many other things I want to blog about... but I just can't move past this until I get it out. I'll include a bonus for those few of you that stick it our for a few minutes.

It all starts out in

Another in the never ending series of posts about building a website... Part ZCXII

And then I carried it a little further with

Just when you think you got it licked...

Well... I am a couple of steps further.

I decided that since I had to go to all of the trouble to rebuild my web presence, I should upgrade. I had already gone pretty much over the edge with GarageHomesUSA, but LaneBailey was pretty boring. I mean really boring. But, hopefully, those that stumble on to this post soon won't see the site that the early readers see. Instead, they'll see the new site. I was thinking about my "other" blog, and had wanted to migrate to a WordPress platform on my own domain. ***BTW, this is the bonus. I haven't turned the name on yet, so you are getting a REAL sneak peak... if you are an early reader.***

This whole blogging thing is out of hand.

So, I am getting away from Blogger, and going to WordPress. I'm going to make one of my primary consumer interfaces into a blog. I'll keep the Blogger up for a while with regularly updated posts. Then, I will transform that platform into a anthology site.

I also got a new toy that I'll be getting set up in a few minutes... a Nikon Coolscan V. I have literally thousands of images to scan... and you can bet that some will be making it on to my blog. I have not really put as many pictures as I'd like into my posts, but much of that has been because I didn't want to run afoul anyone's copyright... and I knew that I had something floating around that would cover it...

So, enough technojunk from me...

I'd almost consider running to answer this question...

So, it's like this...

First, the video is only 27 seconds long, so feel free to watch.

Now, let me tackle the answer.

Jamie, there isn't a quick and easy answer to the question, but it looks like you think there should be from your video. But, let's look at the causes, and let's see if we can find some possible solutions.

Causes:

• The fed, trying to keep the economy rolling after the terror attacks of 9/11 kept rates low. Those low rates made a lot of people think about taking advantage of them to buy homes... lower rate, better payments.
  
• Consumers decided to take advantage of that opportunity to not only buy houses, but to tap the equity in their homes while refinancing, since they could cash out, and keep the same payment.
  
• Many of those consumers got greedy and wanted to get more than they really should have. Instead of getting another 30 year fixed when they refi'd, they chose to go after something wilder and instead of 5.25% for 30 years, they got an interest only ARM for 2.5%... and then bought a bass boat and a new Tahoe.
  
• Buyers got the same kind of greedy. About the same time they figured out that they could get a $400,000 house with a real loan, they found out they could get a $600,000 home with a mortgage that they had no business being in. But, they wanted it and didn't care.
  
• Other buyers also got greedy, but in a different way. They found out that they could get out of their apartment, and into a house without spending any money. They could buy a house with 100% financing. They didn't care about the terms... it was less than their rent.
  
• Some mortgage brokers got greedy, too. They put people into whatever worked for the moment without regard to the future ability to repay. As soon as the loan closed, it was sold... so who cares.
• Some agents got greedy as well. They actually suggested that buyers get something wild just to get a bigger commission.
  
• Back to the fed... They raised rates in order to cool inflationary issues. Those "exotic mortgages" started to get pretty exotic...

Solutions:

• Personal responsibility.
  

Do you really think that any of the above things should be fixed by the government? I mean really.

• The fed was doing the right thing to respond to the financial needs of the country. Technicians may argue about whether it was too much, too little, too early or too late... but it was the right strategy.
  
• Nothing wrong with refinancing for a better rate. Nothing wrong with taking out a little cash to make the house better.
  
• When people start paying off credit cards things get a little gray. As we move into Tahoes, bass boats, and vacations, we are leaving gray and heading towards dark. Doing with an exotic mortgage product is just plain stupid.
  
• Buying too much house because you just want to... and can find a mortgage product that will let you... just plain stupid.
  
• As much as I like first time buyers, and want EVERYONE to own a home, some people just aren't ready. Not understanding what you are committing yourself to is... not responsible. (I won't say stupid, because first time buyers NEED a break, and they need the guidance of responsible professionals).
• I think that loan originators that don't care about the future of those that they pawn off crappy, unsuitable products upon are crossing an ethical line. it isn't going from bad to good, either.
  
• Agents... same thing.
  
• Again, the fed did what they needed to do for the situation. Same arguments as the first point.
  

So, there is the answer to your question.

Now, on to your point that you didn't ask a question about...

Why has your neighbor's home been on the market for six months?

The price is wrong for the market, marketing, or condition. It isn't the same real estate climate as two years ago. The house needs to be priced where it belongs, not where they buyer hopes it will be. Perhaps they can't afford to sell it at the price it should be at. If so, maybe it is because they were covered above.

The short answer is that as President, I won't do much to "fix" this problem. I will, however, tell people that the government is not their Mommy, and they need to be responsible for their own actions. If there is a surgical way to make the actions of greedy mortgage originators and real estate agents illegal, I'll pursue it. But, as is often the case, broad legislation usually hurts more people than it helps.

Is that my whole minute?

House values UP!?!

What? Is this guy crazy? Take a look...

S&P Index Reveals Price Changes in 20 Markets
Prices of single-family homes in the third quarter fell 4.5 percent nationwide compared with a year ago.

It was the largest drop since the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index was begun in 1988.

“We are fast approaching the rate of price decline seen at the end of the 1990-1991 recession,” Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR, wrote in a research note. “The odds strongly favor blowing past this mark in coming months.”

Robert J. Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets and the founder of the index, says: “Most of the metro areas continue to show declining or decelerating returns on both an annual and monthly basis. All 20 metro areas were in decline in September over August. Even the five metro areas that still have positive annual growth rates – Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Portland, and Seattle – show continued deceleration in returns."

Here is the one-year change in the 20 metro areas included in the index:

• Atlanta: 0.4 percent
• Boston: -3.2 percent
• Charlotte: 4.7 percent
• Chicago: -2.5 percent
• Cleveland: -4.0 percent
• Dallas: 0.2 percent
• Denver: -0.9 percent
• Detroit: -9.6 percent
• Las Vegas: -9 percent
• Los Angeles: -7 percent
• Miami: -10 percent
• Minneapolis: -4.5 percent
• New York: -3.6 percent
• Phoenix: -8.8 percent
• Portland: 2.2 percent
• San Diego: -9.6 percent
• San Francisco: -4.6 percent
• Seattle: 4.7 percent
• Tampa: -11.1 percent
• Washington: -6.6 percent

Source: Standard & Poor’s (11/27/07)

Ok, the numbers aren't stellar. But, Please note that Atlanta is up 0.4% annually. I have been showing Gwinnett County to be even better than that. Obviously, real estate isn't crashing here, but as mentioned in the article, appreciation is slowing. I don't think it is going to slow much more on a year over year basis, but we always see a slowdown this time of the year.

It's still nice to know that we came in fifth of the twenty largest metro areas. It just goes to show that even in a weak market there are pockets of strength. Please feel free to contact me with any questions. Also, look for my Gwinnett County Market report early next week.

Free Milk... Get your Free Milk!!!

I had an interesting conversation. it was interesting for many and varied reasons.

• There were three people gathered in place that were familiar with my blog... and I was only one of them.
• Only one of them was familiar with Active Rain... me again.
• One of them was an honest to goodness consumer.
  
• Nobody got punched... the Realtysaurus only pushed me a couple of times... ok, she didn't, but she wanted to.
• The path of the conversation was VERY interesting.

So, let me elaborate.

Consumer: "You look familiar to me."

Lane: "I'm a REALTOR(R)."

C: "I think I've read your blog."

Lane: "Cool... I DO have a reader!!"

blah, blah, blah...

C: "So, how soon do you think real estate will turn around in Gwinnett County?"

L: "Tough to say, but I think that the momentum is turning now. Remember, we won't know it is turning until it has turned, since we can only look in a rear view mirror to see."

Realtysaurus: "I couldn't help but overhear you talking about real estate. I'm a REALTOR(R) here in Gwinnett County."

L:

C:

R: "You look familiar."

C: "I said the same thing. It's because I've read his blog."

R: "That's right... the garage guy."

C: "So, when do you think the market will turn in Gwinnett County?"

R: "Oh, Sugar, it never slowed here. We are great."

C: "Are those the talking points you got from the NAR?"

L:

C: "I've seen the numbers on Lane's blog. There is no mistaking that there has been a slowdown. Is your research showing something different? Do you have a blog?"

R: "I don't believe in that blogging. It's giving away the milk for free. Why should someone call me if I give away all of the secrets on the internet?"

C: "Everything that you could possibly say is already out there. But, people might call because they see you really know th e market."

L: "Personally, I don't think I'm giving any real expertise away. If I see a TV show that talks about building a house, that doesn't mean I automatically have the skills."

R: "This isn't as tough as building a house."

C: "Really!?! It's easy work?"

L: "No. It just seems easy for us in the industry because we do it all of the time. Just like the contractors that build houses, it is second nature. But, the skills we employ, and the knowledge we have is far from second nature to those that aren't in the business every day."

C: "That makes sense. So, Realtysaurus, why is it you don't have a blog?"

R: "Why buy the cow if the milk is free? I don't think I should give away my knowledge to everyone on the internet thing... And it seems to techy for me. I have a website, though. it has all sorts of local information."

Now, let me point out a few things. The consumer was not someone that is in my target market. I would be glad to sell her a house, and her husband loves the idea of a 4 car garage, but they are not really car-centric. But, she stumbled across my blog while looking for something else. She found what she needed on my site, as well as some other info that interested her. She and her husband are not currently looking to buy a house, but in a couple of years they may downsize.

The conversation went on for a few minutes. The Realtysaurus excused herself... but not until mentioning things from my blog that lead me to believe that she read more than a few passing posts. She wasn't happy that I have given away so much "milk"... But, the fact remains that there is nothing we say that isn't being said by scores of outlets. If we don't supply the information, others will. And, it isn't the info that makes us valuable, it is the ability to act on it, interpret it, and maximize its potential. None of that comes from a webpage.

Woohoo. I have a couple of readers... ok, probably one less as of now.

Housing Starts down slightly, but Multi-Family are up...

So, what does that mean? First, let me toss out the original story.

Daily Real Estate News | November 21, 2007

Home Starts Up, Mostly Due to Multi-Family
U.S. home builders broke ground on more apartment buildings in October, driving housing starts up 3 percent to an unexpected seasonally adjusted rate of 1.229 million, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.

But builders trimmed permits for future building projects by 6.6 percent. They also cut back 7.3 percent on single-family homes to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 884,000, the lowest level of single-family home building since the last recession in October of 1991.

The levels varied regionally. Home starts in the Northeast rose 8.5 percent overall, and starts of single-family homes rose 29.5 percent. Single-family starts in the Midwest were up 15.1 percent with the overall increase at 21.1 percent.

In the South, overall starts dropped 4.6 percent and single-family starts fell 19.5 percent. Starts in the West rose 5.8 percent overall but single-family home starts dropped 8.1 percent.

Source: Thomas Financial, Dennis Moore (11/20/07)

Here is the link to the story from the NAR.

Of course, I want to focus on the numbers for the South. Starts are down by 4.6%, but SFR (Single Family Residential) Starts are down by 19.5%. That tells me that MFR (Multi-Family Residential) is well up. Why would that be? Well, MFR is another way of saying rental property. So, if builders are getting more orders for rental properties, the buyers are confident that they will be able to fill those units. It also means that buyers are confident that they will be able to pay off those units with the tenants moving in to them.

I have previously mentioned that it was looking like rents were expected to increase faster than previously expected. The "Sub-Prime Mortgage Meltdown" would be the main reason. People that were on the edge of affording a home before the SPMM are out of the market now. That increases demand on rentals... until the supply catches up, the price will rise.

So, let me sum this up into a nice, neat package.

• If you are a credit-worthy buyer, this might be a good time for you to exploit that. The market has a LOT of inventory, and deals are to be found.
  
• If you aren't buying, look for rent to go up.
  
• If you don't know if you are able to get credit, talk to a reputable mortgage broker. They can tell you if you are able to qualify for something, and what the terms will be.
• Rates are still incredibly low.
  

I am a long way from saying that everyone needs to rush back in to the real estate market. If your credit is shaky, I would recommend you sit on the sidelines a while longer while fixing your credit and building up some cash. I would also still counsel you to talk with a mortgage broker. A good mortgage broker can tell you the real ways to increase your credit scores.

If you need any referrals to a good mortgage broker, feel free to contact me through my website.

But it's a tradition...

Thanksgiving is a time that we look back over the year and think of all of the wonderful things that we have to be thankful for. It is also a time for us to enjoy being with our families. And, being with family always gets the wayback machine firing on all cylinders...

So, while I was talking with my Mother about Thanksgiving meals, a few interesting things came up... not the first time.

I have spent my adult life being less than traditional. My ex-wife and I used to host our "Orphan Thanksgiving" feast every year. We had all of our friends... and their friends... that didn't have other family in town over for the Thanksgiving meal. We had some pretty big crowds. In order to satisfy the numbers, we often had other things with the turkey... like hamburgers, hot dogs, and lasagna. We would have a lot of the traditional foods, but there were always some "bonus foods."

After we divorced, I kept that little tradition alive for a while. I had friends over, but we skipped the turkey altogether. Pizza was the most prevalent dish served. Of course, the grill was fired up on occasion as well. Nothing says Thanksgiving like a grilled hamburger or hot dog.

Fast forward to this Thanksgiving...

The rest of the extended family was out of town. So, my lovely wife, beautiful child and I sat down for a Thanksgiving meal of... breakfast burritos. Not even turkey sausage in the burritos.

Of course, once again, my Mother was convinced I had committed a sacrilege. But, this is the same woman that used to make 20 courses for Thanksgiving... half of which NOBODY would eat. All in the name or tradition. Nobody wanted the mincemeat pie... but she made it for decades. (She goes out to eat with my step-father now).

"So, Lane, does this have ANYTHING to do with real estate?"

Since you asked... yes, yes it does.

There are a lot of things that real estate agents do because they are traditional. I do some of them occasionally, too. We hold open houses, place newspaper ads, fax things to people, and talk about being number one in customer service in our ads.

But, those aren't always productive. Open houses don't sell houses. Newspaper ads are shown to be a weak draw for a property (at best). I am working to be paperless, since all of the faxes make more paperwaste than anyone outside of this business can imagine. And, "1 is NOT the loneliest number" anymore... every agent in the country is number 1.

But, that is the way many agents have always done business.

According to the NAR, about 4% of us blog. Despite attending the convention last week where EVERYONE was talking about blogging, I don't think more than 10% ever will. And that will take a decade.

Customer focused websites? Client focused marketing? Rare at best. As an industry, we have gotten in to the habit of putting ourselves at the center of our universe.

It's a tradition.

If you are looking for a non-traditional agent, one that isn't afraid to turn things upside-down for better results, let me know.

GarageHomesUSA.

Get 10% off at Lowe's!

If so, I have a deal for you.

Sign up for my email list, and I'll send you a 10% discount coupon for Lowe's.

It's that easy. Seriously. Ok, it does mean that you have to give me your address, and your real email address, but here is what I can promise in return...

• I will NOT sell your information.
  
• I will NOT give away your information (except to Lowe's for the discount coupon).
• I will NOT trade your information.
  

This is what I plan to do once you give me your information:

• I will send the discount coupon.
• I will send occasional emails (I promise that I won't send anything more than a couple times a month... normally just once a month)
• I will give you updates on big things happening on my website.
• I will send you an occasional postcard or other piece of mail (again, once per month maximum).

Here is why I want to do this:

• I want your business.
• I want to keep my name in front of you, so that when you buy and/or sell a home in this area, you will think of me to assist you.
• I want you to think of me for a referral if you know someone buying and/or selling a property in another area.
• I want you to think of me if you know of someone else that is buying or selling a property here.

Here is what I ask:

• Please be thinking of buying or selling a property in Gwinnett or the surrounding area in the next six months or so.
• Consider me to be the real estate agent to help you with the transaction(s). This doesn't mean you are required to, it just means that you will give me a shot.
• Please don't be represented by another agent.

And, if you think that is all I want to offer, please think again...

• Client Gateway (for Buyers and Sellers)
• New Methods
• Performance history
• Real Pricing (Absorption Rate Pricing Analysis - for Buyer and Sellers)
  
• Appropriate Promotion (not just MLS and pray - for Sellers)
  
• Access to the right Presentation (We'll get you staged and ready to sell - for Sellers)

I look forward to hearing from you. I'd love to give away a bunch of these certificates.

Open Property Search for Gwinnett County, GA and surrounding

I've gone and done it now... I opened up the search capability on my website. Search the MLS without having to register or give up your private information.

As long as there have been real estate agents, we have been gatekeepers of information. In the early days, agents and brokers held their own listings. They wouldn't even share them with other agents and brokers. Then, somebody figured out that other agents had listings, too... and they might be willing to all cooperate and share... and EVERYBODY would benefit. And so the Multiple Listing Service was born. It was real estate brokers in a specific area cooperating with each other and making all of their listings available to each other.

It was... "The Book." I can remember back in the 1980s (and the book goes back WAY before that) going to the agent's office to see "The Book." It was guarded, and seldom allowed out of the office. It was updated every week or three... depending on the market. But, agents guarded it like a treasure. The information was power...

And then came the listing computer. I remember this as well (no, I wasn't in the business. I was a buyer). One actually had to go to the office of the agent to look at "The Terminal." It was on an intranet, and tied into the MLS. Agents could only see it at the office, and there were still books, but the listings were updated daily, and somewhat searchable on "The Terminal." But, if a buyer wanted to have access to new listings, the agent had to pour over the machine each day or every few days to see what was updated.

Then came "The Website." Soon, the listings were available via IDX (this is a data exchange where the listings are sent to all of the brokers that want them). Because the internet was still not widely adopted, and the information was prized, the only way to access "The Website" was through a broker's site... with a password... that one got by giving up their information.

Now, the information is out there. We all have it. I have it on one of my websites as an IDX feed.

When I surf, I hate putting in my private information. I want to be anonymous until I desire to give up my information. I assume that most web surfers are like me. So, I decided that I needed to give the same anonymity to my surfers that I want when I am out on the web. The Golden Rule and all that.

There was a little reluctance from some of those that were entrenched with the "control of information", but they have caved... Search away.

If you wish to give me your information, I'll be happy to put you on my email list. Or, you can get my RSS feed from my blog, confident that I am still in the dark as to your identity. If you want to look through my site and search the listings and then use another agent for the transaction, that's ok. I hope that you decide that I should represent you.

Enjoy.

Oh yeah... You can do the search through ANY of my websites. LaneGetsResults, LaneBailey, GarageHomesUSA or directly.

So, he's hit the "But that's the way I want it to be" stage...

Many of you might know that I have a three (and a half) year old son. He has graced a variety of my posts, and is one of the primary inspirations for me being in real estate... but I digress... Often.

So, while it isn't the first time, I wanted to relay a little story involving the "Boy Wonder."

Upon my return from the NAR Convention, my wife promptly left town... to do a little scrap-booking with her mother. She left Mini-Me in my care for the weekend. During one of our dinners, he became impatient. It went something like this...

"Daddy, is dinner ready yet?"

"No buddy, I just started it... give me a few minutes."

"But, Daddy, I'm hungry nooowwwww."

"Well, a few minutes ago when I asked if you were getting hungry, you said that you weren't."

"Is it ready yet?"

"No."

"Yes it is!"

"No, it isn't... no matter how much you want to change it... it won't be ready until it is ready."

Seems simple enough, right?

So, Lane... why are you writing this on a real estate blog?

Simple. He isn't the only one that is prone to statements like that. I've been seeing a lot more of them in the last few months. Sometimes it is from those that lobby on our behalf. Other times it is from those inside the industry.

"Real estate sales are off by 15%"

"That isn't bad."

"The trends aren't pointing to a recovery yet. It could happen, but we can't know."

"Yes they are! Everything is hunky-dory. We are already seeing the recovery."

"No, it isn't... no matter how much you want to change it... it won't be ready until it is ready."

Let me make this clear. I believe that real estate will see a large scale recovery in the next year or so... but it might not. Then again, it could be sooner. Where I have the problem is when we are faced with a difficult market, some in the NAR, and many agents simply say that everything is great. One might almost think that they feel if they say it enough, it will be so. But, just as with the media talking of values "tumbling" when they drop a few percent, saying that there is "nothing to see here" when there clearly is... doesn't help make us look honest and transparent.

There are incredible opportunities. But, as investors know, there have to be risks. Those that get in BEFORE the recovery is piling away at full steam will get the best returns... and, as in the last cycle change, the last ones to the party just get to clean up and don't get to play in the fun.

New pricing model

I'm still out here at the National Association of REALTORS(R) Convention in Las Vegas. So far, it has been a pretty cool experience. Sorry I don't have any pictures, I actually have carried my digital camera with me everywhere... but I haven't even seen the strip.

So, what interesting stuff is here for consumers? Just about nothing. But, as a REALTOR(R) there have been quite a few interesting revelations. One thing I can say for sure is that I have found a new pricing model that has amazing potential. CMAs (Comparative Market Analysis) look to be a thing of the past for me. I attended a seminar yesterday on "Right Price Analysis", or Absorption Rate Pricing models.

I don't think it could sound any drier... Oddly, the session was the most entertaining one I've been to. The material was extremely interesting, and the presentation was excellent.

"So, what are you going to do about it, Lane?"

Look for a new method for me to deliver my market reports. I will be using absorption rates in my market reports. Basically, this will cover how much inventory is on the market in different segments, and what percentage of listings are actually selling. It will be a much more accurate picture of the market, and can be scaled up or down. I will literally be able to give a reasonably accurate picture of the market activity in a subdivision, as well as its direction.

I isn't the most exciting thing to hear about, but I hope that the results will be more helpful to people getting in to the market as buyers and/or sellers. If you want to be ahead of the curve, call me or send me an email, and we can do a RPA for your home that you are looking to sell. (please keep in mind that if you are currently listed with another agent, I cannot talk to you about your property, or I could lose my license).

I have a few more classes today, and I hope to run across some more exciting information.

Going to Vegas for the NAR Convention

I am getting ready to go to my first NAR Convention. The NAR is the National Association of REALTORS(R).

I haven't been to one of the national conventions, but I am looking forward to it. I was able to schedule it at the VERY last minute. I do plan on posting each day, even though I know I will be very busy. I doubt if I'll even have time to squeeze in a hand or three of Blackjack, as I am scheduled to hit info sessions all day, every day.

Sorry for not having a normal post today, but I promise to make up for it... maybe I'll come up with something on the plane... or I'll watch "The 300" instead... we'll see.

Today is THE day! One Day Sale for 2324 at Tuscany in Midtown Atlanta

This is it. If you are in the area of the Tuscany condos in Midtown Atlanta (between Juniper and Piedmont and 8th and 10th streets) drop in. We have 6 units open today from 6 different agents. The unit I represent, #2324 in the Bocce building, is marked down $10,000 for today. Don't wait. It may not wait for you.

This is a GREAT place to live. Only a couple of blocks to a MARTA train station, close to Piedmont Park, a score of great restaurants and clubs, and all that Midtown Atlanta has to offer.

This is a great 1 bedroom/1 bathroom condo that also features a den/office. With 966 square feet (tax records) of interior room, and a 103 square foot patio (builder's plan), there is more space than in other 1bd/1ba floorplans.

This is a great top-floor unit with a view out to mid-town, overlooking Juniper Street. It features a lovely double sided fireplace between the living room and the den, halogen track lighting, and a huge walk-through closet in the master bedroom. It also features beautiful wood floors throughout, and luxurious solid surface countertops in the kitchen and bath.

All kitchen appliances will remain, as will the washer and dryer in the laundry room off of the kitchen. There is also a covered parking spot included with the unit.

Walk to Piedmont Park, or to one of the many restaurants in the area. Located between 10th Street and 8th Street, just one block off of Peachtree, Tuscany is incredibly convenient. While others are still fighting the traffic on I-75, I-85 or GA400, you can be home and relaxing in front of the TV, working out in the complex gym, or floating in the pool.

Welcome home. This rare floorplan is offered at $209,900. The seller is motivated.

Lend me your "too cool" garage... ok, just tell me about it!

I was going to call this post "A funny thing happened on my way to the Search Engine Results..." and then start it with... I got hijacked. It was one of them long-tailed searches. They sure are sneaky. But, I got hijacked with a different idea, sooo...

I got hijacked. It was one of them long-tailed searches. They sure are sneaky.

This one was called "cool garage toys". Now, if you take a look at my tags, you'll see that I have around 30 posts that mention garages. I have over 100 that involve real estate. One might think that I would get some search engine lovin' for real estate... but, nope. It's all about garages.

Seriously, my top six search terms are all garages. Now, I will say that there is one post I have here that has surpassed all others in contacts... my phone rings twice a week over it, and it is real estate related, but nobody that calls has the $20M to actually do it, and they just want me to tell all of my secrets... but, for the most part, I think that most of my Googling readers are hitting me looking for the grooviest and coolest garage stuff.

Being a tech savvy guy (think Steve Martin's "wild and craaazy guys" line), as well as a garage geek and swift thinking marketer, I have a solution. I want to see YOUR garage. That's right... YOUR garage.

So, being the swifty that I am, after a mere 4 1/2 months, I have figure out that I need to showcase some cool garages. Now, of course this blog isn't the best platform for it, but I do have a real estate and garage website (duh!) that would be perfect.

No charge. No geographical restrictions. No pressure. I'd just like to see some cool garages. I might even be able to put you on the front lines of a cool reward I'm looking to announce in a week or two as well.

The only thing I ask is that they look better than the sad sack I have pictures of here. This is a truly terrible garage. It is clogged with crap, and needs a much better system for storage. I just haven't had the time of money to finish the projects that is clogging it up... Talk to my wife. As soon as she let's me, I will clean it up and turn it into the 26'x24' one car garage it always wanted to be... with attached tool room.

So, comment and send me an email. I'll gladly feature YOUR garage on my website. For the whole world to see. Maybe my wife will stop buying purses long enough for me to do something with my own garage.

Oh yeah... If you need a bigger garage, let me know. I'm in Gwinnett County, GA and also work South Hall and South Forsyth. Furthermore, I have agents all over the country that would love to get a "car people" referral.