Thursday, November 29, 2007

House values UP!?!

What? Is this guy crazy? Take a look...

S&P Index Reveals Price Changes in 20 Markets
Prices of single-family homes in the third quarter fell 4.5 percent nationwide compared with a year ago.

It was the largest drop since the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index was begun in 1988.

“We are fast approaching the rate of price decline seen at the end of the 1990-1991 recession,” Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR, wrote in a research note. “The odds strongly favor blowing past this mark in coming months.”

Robert J. Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets and the founder of the index, says: “Most of the metro areas continue to show declining or decelerating returns on both an annual and monthly basis. All 20 metro areas were in decline in September over August. Even the five metro areas that still have positive annual growth rates – Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Portland, and Seattle – show continued deceleration in returns."

Here is the one-year change in the 20 metro areas included in the index:
  • Atlanta: 0.4 percent
  • Boston: -3.2 percent
  • Charlotte: 4.7 percent
  • Chicago: -2.5 percent
  • Cleveland: -4.0 percent
  • Dallas: 0.2 percent
  • Denver: -0.9 percent
  • Detroit: -9.6 percent
  • Las Vegas: -9 percent
  • Los Angeles: -7 percent
  • Miami: -10 percent
  • Minneapolis: -4.5 percent
  • New York: -3.6 percent
  • Phoenix: -8.8 percent
  • Portland: 2.2 percent
  • San Diego: -9.6 percent
  • San Francisco: -4.6 percent
  • Seattle: 4.7 percent
  • Tampa: -11.1 percent
  • Washington: -6.6 percent

Source: Standard & Poor’s (11/27/07)

Ok, the numbers aren't stellar. But, Please note that Atlanta is up 0.4% annually. I have been showing Gwinnett County to be even better than that. Obviously, real estate isn't crashing here, but as mentioned in the article, appreciation is slowing. I don't think it is going to slow much more on a year over year basis, but we always see a slowdown this time of the year.

It's still nice to know that we came in fifth of the twenty largest metro areas. It just goes to show that even in a weak market there are pockets of strength. Please feel free to contact me with any questions. Also, look for my Gwinnett County Market report early next week.

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