Is a clear sky blue?

Sitting down this morning getting my Fox News fix, I noticed a release by the NAR that has me re-thinking a position I have taken...

Here is the link to the NAR news release. To summarize, the position the NAR takes is that housing will start to pick up in 2008. Existing home sales will rebound, although new homes will lag for another year.

Well, I've been saying this for a few months (go back and look at my Gwinnett Market Reports if you don't believe me). And so, when the NAR says the same think, I need to re-assess my position.

Why, you ask?

Because the NAR started calling the bottom of the market and the rebound before the decline was in full swing. And that really ticks me off. I don't have a problem with putting a good spin on things. We all do it, and sometimes we just need to in order to remind people about the other side of the coin. Whether it is a Buyer's Market or a Seller's Market, it is a crappy market for half of the people in a transaction...

But, it's one thing to put your best foot forward, and quite another to say that everything is always perfect. I run numbers for my market... and I make predictions based on those numbers. When I am wrong, I acknowledge it, and when the news just sucks, I say it. I don't try to speak out of both sides of my mouth just to make sure that I'm covered.

Right now, if the NAR announced that skies were blue, I'd run outside to check.

Keep in mind that I am not only a member of my association in order to have access to the MLS (we don't have to be), but rather, I am currently active in the association (until tomorrow's meeting, I am the chairman of the RPAC committee). No, I'm not being deposed... my tenure is coming to a scheduled end.

So, what do we do about it?

Of the 33.548 real estate agents on A/R... as of a moment ago... I'd bet that the vast majority are members of the NAR. I know that the majority are ticked at the NAR over one thing or another. But, I would bet there are about 50 that are actually active in their local association. I bet half don't even know who is President of their local association, much less the state association.

So, get involved. Make your voice heard [I have NO idea this post was going this way].

And, when the NAR issues these reports, grab some salt, and run your own numbers.

House values UP!?!

What? Is this guy crazy? Take a look...

S&P Index Reveals Price Changes in 20 Markets
Prices of single-family homes in the third quarter fell 4.5 percent nationwide compared with a year ago.

It was the largest drop since the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index was begun in 1988.

“We are fast approaching the rate of price decline seen at the end of the 1990-1991 recession,” Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR, wrote in a research note. “The odds strongly favor blowing past this mark in coming months.”

Robert J. Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets and the founder of the index, says: “Most of the metro areas continue to show declining or decelerating returns on both an annual and monthly basis. All 20 metro areas were in decline in September over August. Even the five metro areas that still have positive annual growth rates – Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Portland, and Seattle – show continued deceleration in returns."

Here is the one-year change in the 20 metro areas included in the index:

• Atlanta: 0.4 percent
• Boston: -3.2 percent
• Charlotte: 4.7 percent
• Chicago: -2.5 percent
• Cleveland: -4.0 percent
• Dallas: 0.2 percent
• Denver: -0.9 percent
• Detroit: -9.6 percent
• Las Vegas: -9 percent
• Los Angeles: -7 percent
• Miami: -10 percent
• Minneapolis: -4.5 percent
• New York: -3.6 percent
• Phoenix: -8.8 percent
• Portland: 2.2 percent
• San Diego: -9.6 percent
• San Francisco: -4.6 percent
• Seattle: 4.7 percent
• Tampa: -11.1 percent
• Washington: -6.6 percent

Source: Standard & Poor’s (11/27/07)

Ok, the numbers aren't stellar. But, Please note that Atlanta is up 0.4% annually. I have been showing Gwinnett County to be even better than that. Obviously, real estate isn't crashing here, but as mentioned in the article, appreciation is slowing. I don't think it is going to slow much more on a year over year basis, but we always see a slowdown this time of the year.

It's still nice to know that we came in fifth of the twenty largest metro areas. It just goes to show that even in a weak market there are pockets of strength. Please feel free to contact me with any questions. Also, look for my Gwinnett County Market report early next week.

Free Milk... Get your Free Milk!!!

I had an interesting conversation. it was interesting for many and varied reasons.

• There were three people gathered in place that were familiar with my blog... and I was only one of them.
• Only one of them was familiar with Active Rain... me again.
• One of them was an honest to goodness consumer.
  
• Nobody got punched... the Realtysaurus only pushed me a couple of times... ok, she didn't, but she wanted to.
• The path of the conversation was VERY interesting.

So, let me elaborate.

Consumer: "You look familiar to me."

Lane: "I'm a REALTOR(R)."

C: "I think I've read your blog."

Lane: "Cool... I DO have a reader!!"

blah, blah, blah...

C: "So, how soon do you think real estate will turn around in Gwinnett County?"

L: "Tough to say, but I think that the momentum is turning now. Remember, we won't know it is turning until it has turned, since we can only look in a rear view mirror to see."

Realtysaurus: "I couldn't help but overhear you talking about real estate. I'm a REALTOR(R) here in Gwinnett County."

L:

C:

R: "You look familiar."

C: "I said the same thing. It's because I've read his blog."

R: "That's right... the garage guy."

C: "So, when do you think the market will turn in Gwinnett County?"

R: "Oh, Sugar, it never slowed here. We are great."

C: "Are those the talking points you got from the NAR?"

L:

C: "I've seen the numbers on Lane's blog. There is no mistaking that there has been a slowdown. Is your research showing something different? Do you have a blog?"

R: "I don't believe in that blogging. It's giving away the milk for free. Why should someone call me if I give away all of the secrets on the internet?"

C: "Everything that you could possibly say is already out there. But, people might call because they see you really know th e market."

L: "Personally, I don't think I'm giving any real expertise away. If I see a TV show that talks about building a house, that doesn't mean I automatically have the skills."

R: "This isn't as tough as building a house."

C: "Really!?! It's easy work?"

L: "No. It just seems easy for us in the industry because we do it all of the time. Just like the contractors that build houses, it is second nature. But, the skills we employ, and the knowledge we have is far from second nature to those that aren't in the business every day."

C: "That makes sense. So, Realtysaurus, why is it you don't have a blog?"

R: "Why buy the cow if the milk is free? I don't think I should give away my knowledge to everyone on the internet thing... And it seems to techy for me. I have a website, though. it has all sorts of local information."

Now, let me point out a few things. The consumer was not someone that is in my target market. I would be glad to sell her a house, and her husband loves the idea of a 4 car garage, but they are not really car-centric. But, she stumbled across my blog while looking for something else. She found what she needed on my site, as well as some other info that interested her. She and her husband are not currently looking to buy a house, but in a couple of years they may downsize.

The conversation went on for a few minutes. The Realtysaurus excused herself... but not until mentioning things from my blog that lead me to believe that she read more than a few passing posts. She wasn't happy that I have given away so much "milk"... But, the fact remains that there is nothing we say that isn't being said by scores of outlets. If we don't supply the information, others will. And, it isn't the info that makes us valuable, it is the ability to act on it, interpret it, and maximize its potential. None of that comes from a webpage.

Woohoo. I have a couple of readers... ok, probably one less as of now.

Good bread, good meat...

Every once in a while, I need to wander off on a tangent. Tonight, while driving back from the initial meeting for volunteers at the NHL All-Star Game, I drove by Fat Matt's Rib Shack (and let's not forget the Chicken Shack next door). So... I got to thinking about some of the great places I have been lucky enough to eat at here in Atlanta. I know it isn't about real estate, but we live here... and we have to eat... and if we are going to eat, we should eat well.

I guess I should start with Fat Matt's. This is a legendary stop in Atlanta. Aside from ribs that are known throughout the South, there is live blues seven nights a week. The last time I stopped in, there was a tour bus parked outside. As a blues neophyte, I couldn't tell you who the musician was, but one of my guests was just about beside himself that a legend would bring his bus up from New Orleans for a one night engagement in a rib joint. Don't let the look fool you... this place rocks... er blues... whatever.

The chicken next door is also quite amazing. That would be Fat Matt's Chicken Shack. No live blues (that I know of), but BBQ chicken for lunch is certainly a treat.

The next one on the list is actually gone now. For decades there was a place in Atlanta called Deacon Burton's Soul Food Grill. It was the very definition of Southern Cuisine. Deacon Burton passed away a few years ago, and there was a lot of drama involving the restaurant. Born of the drama is a place called Son's Place. I have not been there, but I hear it is across the street and has faithfully captured the experience. The reviews are good as well.

As long as we are on Southern foods, let's hit another BBQ place. This one is right around the corner from me. Spiced Right Bar-B-Q in Lilburn, GA. It is good sweet BBQ. Again, it isn't fancy, but that doesn't mean it isn't good. They have half a dozen different sauces, and they are all good. On my last visit, I enjoyed the brisket... and some pulled pork... and some chicken. Ok, I had some rolls, too.

Finally, not too far away is a DeKalb County tradition... but it's pretty close to Gwinnett County as well. Matthew's Cafeteria in Tucker is a favorite destination for locals at lunchtime. Like Son's Place, they are a "meat and three" place (for those that aren't familiar, that would be meat and three vegetables or sides). Swinging by around lunch, and the lot is plugged with police cars, while there is a steady stream of traffic from Cofer Bros. Lumber across the street.

If you are an Atlanta local, especially around Gwinnett County, I hope that you have a few new ideas for lunch or dinner in the next couple of weeks. If you don't live in Atlanta, drop in for a visit. Buy a house. I'll even take you to lunch...

Housing Starts down slightly, but Multi-Family are up...

So, what does that mean? First, let me toss out the original story.

Daily Real Estate News | November 21, 2007

Home Starts Up, Mostly Due to Multi-Family
U.S. home builders broke ground on more apartment buildings in October, driving housing starts up 3 percent to an unexpected seasonally adjusted rate of 1.229 million, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.

But builders trimmed permits for future building projects by 6.6 percent. They also cut back 7.3 percent on single-family homes to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 884,000, the lowest level of single-family home building since the last recession in October of 1991.

The levels varied regionally. Home starts in the Northeast rose 8.5 percent overall, and starts of single-family homes rose 29.5 percent. Single-family starts in the Midwest were up 15.1 percent with the overall increase at 21.1 percent.

In the South, overall starts dropped 4.6 percent and single-family starts fell 19.5 percent. Starts in the West rose 5.8 percent overall but single-family home starts dropped 8.1 percent.

Source: Thomas Financial, Dennis Moore (11/20/07)

Here is the link to the story from the NAR.

Of course, I want to focus on the numbers for the South. Starts are down by 4.6%, but SFR (Single Family Residential) Starts are down by 19.5%. That tells me that MFR (Multi-Family Residential) is well up. Why would that be? Well, MFR is another way of saying rental property. So, if builders are getting more orders for rental properties, the buyers are confident that they will be able to fill those units. It also means that buyers are confident that they will be able to pay off those units with the tenants moving in to them.

I have previously mentioned that it was looking like rents were expected to increase faster than previously expected. The "Sub-Prime Mortgage Meltdown" would be the main reason. People that were on the edge of affording a home before the SPMM are out of the market now. That increases demand on rentals... until the supply catches up, the price will rise.

So, let me sum this up into a nice, neat package.

• If you are a credit-worthy buyer, this might be a good time for you to exploit that. The market has a LOT of inventory, and deals are to be found.
  
• If you aren't buying, look for rent to go up.
  
• If you don't know if you are able to get credit, talk to a reputable mortgage broker. They can tell you if you are able to qualify for something, and what the terms will be.
• Rates are still incredibly low.
  

I am a long way from saying that everyone needs to rush back in to the real estate market. If your credit is shaky, I would recommend you sit on the sidelines a while longer while fixing your credit and building up some cash. I would also still counsel you to talk with a mortgage broker. A good mortgage broker can tell you the real ways to increase your credit scores.

If you need any referrals to a good mortgage broker, feel free to contact me through my website.

Open Property Search for Gwinnett County, GA and surrounding

I've gone and done it now... I opened up the search capability on my website. Search the MLS without having to register or give up your private information.

As long as there have been real estate agents, we have been gatekeepers of information. In the early days, agents and brokers held their own listings. They wouldn't even share them with other agents and brokers. Then, somebody figured out that other agents had listings, too... and they might be willing to all cooperate and share... and EVERYBODY would benefit. And so the Multiple Listing Service was born. It was real estate brokers in a specific area cooperating with each other and making all of their listings available to each other.

It was... "The Book." I can remember back in the 1980s (and the book goes back WAY before that) going to the agent's office to see "The Book." It was guarded, and seldom allowed out of the office. It was updated every week or three... depending on the market. But, agents guarded it like a treasure. The information was power...

And then came the listing computer. I remember this as well (no, I wasn't in the business. I was a buyer). One actually had to go to the office of the agent to look at "The Terminal." It was on an intranet, and tied into the MLS. Agents could only see it at the office, and there were still books, but the listings were updated daily, and somewhat searchable on "The Terminal." But, if a buyer wanted to have access to new listings, the agent had to pour over the machine each day or every few days to see what was updated.

Then came "The Website." Soon, the listings were available via IDX (this is a data exchange where the listings are sent to all of the brokers that want them). Because the internet was still not widely adopted, and the information was prized, the only way to access "The Website" was through a broker's site... with a password... that one got by giving up their information.

Now, the information is out there. We all have it. I have it on one of my websites as an IDX feed.

When I surf, I hate putting in my private information. I want to be anonymous until I desire to give up my information. I assume that most web surfers are like me. So, I decided that I needed to give the same anonymity to my surfers that I want when I am out on the web. The Golden Rule and all that.

There was a little reluctance from some of those that were entrenched with the "control of information", but they have caved... Search away.

If you wish to give me your information, I'll be happy to put you on my email list. Or, you can get my RSS feed from my blog, confident that I am still in the dark as to your identity. If you want to look through my site and search the listings and then use another agent for the transaction, that's ok. I hope that you decide that I should represent you.

Enjoy.

Oh yeah... You can do the search through ANY of my websites. LaneGetsResults, LaneBailey, GarageHomesUSA or directly.

Can we ease the water shortage?

It looks like there is an idea to do just that.

If the US Fish and Wildlife Service signs off, the water coming off Lake Lanier could be dramatically cut. Right now, we have about 79 days left. If this plan goes through, there would be a reduction in the Apalachicola River of about 10%, but the outflow from Lanier could be cut more than that... maybe even more than a year.

So, we'll see what this does for the drought situation. Of course part of the problem is that the USFWS hasn't decided when they'll decide... Of course, it isn't like there is some sort of clock dripping... I mean ticking in the background.

Here is a great blog with sources and further info regarding our wonderful water situation here. I'll also keep posting as I get new info.

Today is THE day! One Day Sale for 2324 at Tuscany in Midtown Atlanta

This is it. If you are in the area of the Tuscany condos in Midtown Atlanta (between Juniper and Piedmont and 8th and 10th streets) drop in. We have 6 units open today from 6 different agents. The unit I represent, #2324 in the Bocce building, is marked down $10,000 for today. Don't wait. It may not wait for you.

This is a GREAT place to live. Only a couple of blocks to a MARTA train station, close to Piedmont Park, a score of great restaurants and clubs, and all that Midtown Atlanta has to offer.

This is a great 1 bedroom/1 bathroom condo that also features a den/office. With 966 square feet (tax records) of interior room, and a 103 square foot patio (builder's plan), there is more space than in other 1bd/1ba floorplans.

This is a great top-floor unit with a view out to mid-town, overlooking Juniper Street. It features a lovely double sided fireplace between the living room and the den, halogen track lighting, and a huge walk-through closet in the master bedroom. It also features beautiful wood floors throughout, and luxurious solid surface countertops in the kitchen and bath.

All kitchen appliances will remain, as will the washer and dryer in the laundry room off of the kitchen. There is also a covered parking spot included with the unit.

Walk to Piedmont Park, or to one of the many restaurants in the area. Located between 10th Street and 8th Street, just one block off of Peachtree, Tuscany is incredibly convenient. While others are still fighting the traffic on I-75, I-85 or GA400, you can be home and relaxing in front of the TV, working out in the complex gym, or floating in the pool.

Welcome home. This rare floorplan is offered at $209,900. The seller is motivated.

Client Gateway for Buyers... a cool bonus.

One of the great features I offer to buyers is the Client Gateway. If you aren't familiar, it is a custom private webpage that lists all of the properties that meet the criteria we decide on. As new listings are entered into the MLS, they show up in the Client Gateway the next morning.

The example shown is a Gateway that I have set up to keep an eye on new listings of homes with 4 or more car garages in Gwinnett County, GA.

A great feature of the Client Gateway is the ability to organize the properties. While reviewing the properties in the Gateway, one can select "Like", "Possibility" or "Dislike". Properties that are shuffled to "Dislike" drop from the front of the site. Those labeled otherwise will have a bar showing that status. They can be arranged by price, age, number of bedrooms, subdivision or city name.

While surfing in the properties, aside from being able to class them, one may also map them, email them to a friend or family member, make notes or send a message to me about the property.

We've long had the ability to send clients listings as they came on the MLS, but this is a MUCH better way than the old email system. Under the old email system, each day there would be a new email. If one liked one of the listings, then they couldn't delete the mail, or they needed to print out the listing for filing. Now, they are much easier to organize and retrieve.

The Client Gateway is just another great service I offer my buyers. If you are interested in having a Client Gateway to track properties you may be interested in buying, let me know. I'm happy to set one up for you while we work together. I look forward to hearing from you. Drop in to my website and send me a message.

One Day Sale!!! For a condo... And an Uber Open House!

I'm sure I'll post up about it again later in the week, but mark your calendar for November 11th.

The Tuscany is a condo development in Midtown Atlanta between 8th and 10th streets (there isn't a 9th street there) and between Juniper and Piedmont. It has a decided Mediterranean style (ya think? It is named Tuscan, not Canadian) with tile roofs and plaster exterior walls. Inside, there are a variety of floorplans, and we will have resale units of most of them, ranging from 675 square foot one bedroom units, up to 1181 square foot two bedroom condos. In all, there are twelve units for sale in this desirable complex. We will have at least seven of them open on November 11th.

Unit #2324, that I have listed is a one bedroom with an additional den. According to tax records (all of the quoted Sq. ft. are from tax records), this unit is 966 square feet. The pictures all over this post are from #2324. It has a spacious master suite with a walk through closet. The kitchen is off of the living room and dining area, allowing a more open view between rooms. The kitchen also features solid surface counter-tops and a eat-in bar. There are wood floors throughout the condo. For more, look at my previous blog post about #2324.

Looking over the railing of the top level balcony, one looks down on Juniper. It exemplifies just how close to the center of it all this is. It's a block and a half to a MARTA rail station. Piedmont Park is just a couple of blocks away. If nightlife is the thing, there is a plethora of clubs along Peachtree and Crescent between 11th and 14th streets (Vision, Twisted Taco, Front Page News, Opera, Club Metro and others). There are also great restaurants like Spice, Mitra, Park Tavern and the Vortex.

And, on November 11th, the seller will be taking $10,000 off of the price of this great condo in a fantastic location. Macy's does it, we can too. You could be in for Christmas... or even Thanksgiving. It is available for immediate sale.

Stop in on November 11th (next Sunday). We'll be holding it open from 2 until 5. We look forward to seeing you there.

You can also stop in to www.955Juniper2324.LaneBailey.com to see more.

Abandon all hope, Ye who enter Atlanta's roads on Halloween...

Tomorrow is Halloween. Don't drive. Seriously, the scariest thing in Atlanta tomorrow will be the traffic.

It won't be bad in the morning, but coming home will NOT be fun. After about 2:00, until around 9:00, the highways and side streets will be crazy. It won't just be the little pirates and ghosts running around collecting candy, either. It is the same every year.

There are the adult parties, the kid parties, the trick or treating and then that special something else... people go nuts.

Mark my words. Take off early (I'm thinking just before lunch) and go home. Dress your little goblin (take that whatever way you want), and then kick back and throw some candy around. Don't even try to go out for a pizza if you don't have to.

Be safe out there...

On droughts and mussels

Ok, we have hit the point where one has to live under a rock to not have heard about the drought in the Southeast. It is a real problem. But there are a few things that don't seem to be getting the play that they should.

• The Army Corps of Engineers is releasing water from Lake Lanier in order to "preserve" a pair of specific species of mussel that lives in the Apalachiacola River delta in Florida.
  
• Alabama doesn't even have a mechanism in place for statewide water restrictions... much less an implementation of water restrictions. GA has been under restrictions for most of the last several years.
• The Army CoE "accidentally" released an extra 22 billion gallons of water due to a faulty gauge this past spring. That is enough to provide the Atlanta metro with water for a month and a half.
  
• If there wasn't a dam on the Chattahoochee River, there would be about half as much water flowing south.
  
• The largest water consumers in the area are a Pepsi Gatorade plant and a Coca-Cola syrup plant.
  

What it seems to be coming down to is that a species of mussel is more important to the Army CoE than the people they are supposed to be serving. Lake Lanier was formed by the Corps to serve the water needs of PEOPLE in the region. But, now those needs are secondary to a mussel that would be facing survival issues if the dam weren't in place. Furthermore, if Atlanta and north GA have to live under water restrictions, areas downstream that rely on the same source should also be under the same restrictions.

Market Update for Gwinnett County, August 2007 (updated 10-17-07)

I need to change the format on these numbers just a bit. I have been trying to put out the market report around the 15^th of the month for the previous month (10/15 for Sept., for example). However, the numbers have been changing so dramatically that I am seeing changes for the previous month (seeing changes to August when I do the 10/15 report) and the changes are dramatic. So, in response, I need to back up the reports just a little. I will try to get future reports out in the first week of the month, but they will be lagging a little over 30 days. This means that around the first week of November I will post a September report.

At this time I will be updating the August report.

August prices are pointing up, but preliminary numbers for September are pointing the other way. I think we need to see a drop in prices to spur buyers into action. I don’t expect that to be much, but a modest decrease of maybe 2%. Currently we are up 4% vs. last year. June was up 5%, and July up 2%. This might also be partly a function of some of the new home sales on the higher end of the market. I would really like to see this flatten a little, as I think it would spur a little more buying.

Time on the market is also trending up vs. last year. We are up to 88 days. That is almost 3 weeks (18 days) more than this time last year. Last month was 80 days on market, but that was also 10 days more than July 2006. May sales were the lowest this year at 76 days on the market. In fact, May was the lowest since last October (2006) when the DoM was 72 days.

By now, I think anyone in the housing market has heard of the Sub-prime Mortgage Meltdown. It is still a big player on the market. Buyers that were marginal even six months ago are out of the market now. Buyers that are solid are still solid. If anything, those buyers are in a stronger position. Since there are fewer buyers, they have increased strength with sellers. Furthermore, I’m starting to see lenders trying to court those strong buyers. Face it, mortgage lenders make money by loaning money. They can only stop writing for so long before they need to look at making money again. Obviously the marginal buyers aren’t popular with the secondary market, so getting “A paper” mortgages back into the stream will become more of an imperative… and so I expect to see rates slide a little for the best buyers.

The current mortgage climate is tough. For buyers with weak credit history, the market is almost closed. Alt A loans (stated income, no documentation) will be away from the market for the foreseeable future, except for the rarest of good credit buyers. And expect that 0% down and even 3% down loans will be reserved for those with better credit.

I think it is getting to be time to say that smart investors need to get back in the market. Buy & Hold strategies will be heavily rewarded in the long run. Prices are good, rates are kicking for those with good credit. There might be a slight easing of prices in the coming months, but I wouldn’t count on it, and we won’t know that we’ve hit bottom until we are off of it.

Finally, remember that we can only get an accurate look in the rear-view mirror. We will only KNOW there has been a change in the market when we see it has already changed. We’ll know that change has taken place when we see all of the best deals are already gone. Currently, I can’t get an accurate picture of overall market activity for at least 30 days after the end of the month. That means that the market could be well into a turn before the numbers will bear it out. And, while I don’t know that we should expect increasing values terribly soon, I don’t think prices will drop much either.

Calling one developer... you don't know who you are yet.

I must admit that I was a bit amazed at the reaction to my last post. On Active Rain, it received a Feature within an hour of being posted. It was also one of my most viewed and commented blog entires. I was shocked that the comments weren't closer to the "Are you nuts?" type.

So, just to get one step closer to reality, here is a compromise first step. Let's team up to build houses for a variety of car people. We're out there. There are at least as many of us as there are horse people, maybe even golf people. Ok, maybe there are more people that hit the links on a Saturday than there are building street rods, but you get my point. There are a LOT of folks out here in the world that love cars. Not only do they love cars, but they have more than two or three. Not only do they have more than two or three, but they like to work on them. For many car people, working on the car might involve a lot more than changing the oil in the driveway.

"What can we do with that little nugget, Lane?"

Let me derail you for a moment. Take a look at a couple of posts I tossed out previously.

• First, there is a post about specializing.
  
• Next up, I posted about unique selling propositions.
  
• Lastly, let me once again point out the NAR Buyer's Study saying that over-sized garages place behind only central air-conditioning on buyer's wish lists (sorry, I don't have an NAR link, but here is the post I made about it).

So, buyers want bigger garages, specialists thrive when generalists fail, and in order to sell in a weak climate a unique selling proposition is one of the key weapons. Builders are choking on inventory in many areas, but other spots are selling like hotcakes. Even in a relatively local area, one development can't keep up, and the next can't keep its head above water.

Of course, pricing is one of the things that can make a difference... but so is value. Building what others don't is one way of creating value. If it is building something desirable, it will separate the leader from the pack.

Instead of building houses and needing to give away TVs and 5%+ commissions, why not build something that will draw buyers. There are some unique (and relatively inexpensive) marketing opportunities. Also, the word of mouth could be amazing. Many people in the car culture community are involved in clubs, and word of a development that was geared towards them would spread like wildfire.

You just need the right type of agent to handle the process and get the ball rolling. Let's team up. Contact me for more info.

Let's build a subdivision that will have the buyers lining up... in their coolest cars.

If you lived here, you'd be rock crawling/drag racing/road racing now...

I just answered a question on another board about marketing a drag racing track that is for sale. I just couldn't help but hit a flight of fancy over it. I started to think of some of the unique, but also fairly popular concepts that I have run across over the years.

There are several road racing communities around the country. The basic concept is to take a private track, with nice views, and instead of trying to make money holding races all of the time, turn it into a private club with residences sprinkled throughout. Throw in a paddock, a nice clubhouse and a few other amenities, and it's a country club for race folks. There are plenty of amatuer racers that have a lot of money to play with... it isn't a cheap hobby. For those that are really into their own racers, factoring in track rentals and transportation costs just for test and tune days, and having access to a track in the neighborhood starts to look great.

Now, people that like to turn the wheel aren't the only ones that would enjoy having a local facility to play. There are at least as many folks that enjoy powering something down the track against the clock. One would need to look into the requirements for private events, but there might be some restrictions that would limit the track to 1/8 mile sprints rather than the traditional 1/4 mile bursts. However, a 1/4 mile track could be set up with lights and timing equipment to run both distances. Just think, Saturday morning and one could pull the dragster out of the garage at home, not even load it up on a trailer, but drive it over to the line... and make a few runs.

The final option would be the most original one. A residential rock crawling club... Rock crawling is one of the fastest growing motor sports in the country. Private off-road parks are popping up all over the country. Unlike drag racing and road course racing, rock crawling happens at VERY slow speeds. While one could argue that there is plenty of carnage in rock crawling, or even its faster cousin rock racing, injuries are pretty rare and pretty mild. So, it might be the safest of the three to host in a private facility without safety crews and emergency transportation. Also, because of the nature of the desirable terrain, it could be hosted in a smaller space, or scaled to larger spaces. It could be done with rolling topography or a fairly flat area with arranged obstacles.

Depending on the desires of each of the communities, events or public days could be hosted to offset some of the costs of the facilities. While the amenities would likely be more expensive than all but the most luxurious traditional clubs (golf, tennis and swimming), the extra income flow, as well as the rarity of the facilities/communities would create good value for the home owner's association.

It sure does make for an interesting group of concepts... and looking at the possible demographics, I think that the right developer could create some VERY popular and unique communities. Free press and publicity would be a breeze, too...

Drop in to my new (as in still under development) website. Take a look. Give me a call.

Tuscany condo in Mid-town

Soon to hit the MLS, you saw it here first...

This is a great 1 bedroom/1 bathroom condo that also features a den/office. With 966 square feet (tax records) of interior room, and a 103 square foot patio (builder's plan), there is more space than in other 1bd/1ba floorplans.

This is a great top-floor unit with a view out to mid-town, overlooking Juniper Street. It features a lovely double sided fireplace between the living room and the den, halogen track lighting, and a huge walk-through closet in the master bedroom. It also features beautiful wood floors throughout, and luxurious solid surface countertops in the kitchen and bath.

All kitchen appliances will remain, as will the washer and dryer in the laundry room off of the kitchen. there is also a covered parking space included with the unit.

Walk to Piedmont Park, or to one of the many restaurants in the area. Located between 10th Street and 8th Street, just one block off of Peachtree, Tuscany is incredibly convenient. While others are still fighting the traffic on I-75, I-85 or GA400, you can be home and relaxing in front of the TV, working out in the complex gym, or floating in the pool.

Welcome home. This rare floorplan is offered at $209,900. The seller is motivated, and will consider a lease purchase as well.

Here is a link to the property on my site...

Can I call a moving company for content?

I have taken a step. In a few weeks, I'll be making a big change in my real estate career. I'm not ready to announce it yet, but one of the parts is an all new website. Because of the HUGE amount of content I have created do to blogging... and blogging here, I have a LOT of content to put into a site. So, I decided to jump into the world of CMS. I finally was able to set up a test with Joomla, and I think I am really going to like this.

While I know that I probably should hire someone to handle my website, I'm not going to... :P

I will be hiring a designer to build a custom template, and possibly also to design a new logo and some other portions for the new business plan, I will remain the one responsible for content and implementation. Because I know that I will be updating and adding content frequently (if I migrate my blog to this platform, it will be updated almost daily), I know that I have to learn how to handle some of these responsibilities.

In the mean time, I just realized that I will be migrating a SERIOUS load of content. I have 125 blog posts here. Many of those posts are suitable as articles and content on my new site. That is a LOT of stuff to get set up and categorized on the new site.

Don't worry, updates and progress reports will appear here first.

What are we doing here? Looking at the housing landscape...

This morning, the NAR kindly sent me this little update through the Real Estate Insights eNewsletter. It explains, quite well, the steps that we will need to move through before the market stabilizes, both locally and nationally. And then, this afternoon, in my REALTOR(R) Magazine Daily Online, I got this story.

Both have something underlying that I think is very important. Congress needs to stay out of the mortgage meltdown issue. While there might be a need for revision of the jumbo loan limits for some high priced markets, anything beyond that will have unintended consequences that would be bad for the housing market. (BTW, unintended consequences seems to be my comment theme of the day) In the second story, there is a mention of Barney Frank calling for more regulation of the mortgage market. He feels it would increase confidence... and it may. But, it would also increase compliance costs, and slow funding. And, as we know from the myriad of regulations that abound for everything the government want to protect, those that mean to be unethical will still be unethical. Those that are hell-bent on buying something they can't afford, will... and they'll still default. But, there will be those on the margin that won't be able to buy their dream home because there is another point of interest, since the regulation means more costs for the lender.

And, as well highlighted in the first linked article, the correction is underway. Before Congress could even think of acting, the market started to fix itself. Is it going to hurt people? Absolutely. Will it hurt people that were responsible in selecting appropriately priced homes and financing products? Not so much. Mostly, the people that will be hurt are those that used products that they didn't understand to buy houses they really couldn't afford. Some did it in ignorance, but many just didn't care or didn't think through the logical conclusion of their actions.

Am I mean to say so? Maybe. But, that doesn't mean I'm wrong.

The good news is that the needed steps are happening (without Congress critters, thank you very much) and the housing market is correcting. Deals are staring smart buyers right in the face, and those deals are selling. As we look in the rear-view mirror of market reports, we can see that the worst is over in many places... and other places still may have some correcting to do.

I like to hang it out on my market reports. For Gwinnett County, I'm calling the bottom of this cycle to be in the next six months. Of course, I might not really see it for a month or two after it passes. And, if something wild happens, all bets are off.

Market Update for Gwinnett County, August 2007

It time for me to make my prognostications for the coming market, while recapping that which has happened. Please keep in mind that even on the 18^th of September, the numbers for August WILL change. I will come back and correct them before posting the October results. I originally posted the June number on July 10^th, and they had changed pretty significantly by August 6^th when I reviewed and corrected them.

The numbers for August, even this late in the month don’t look like they can be complete. If the numbers hold up, the market took a dramatic down-turn in August. I think that as we approach the end of the month, the numbers will correct (I have seen this for a while now).

Prices are pointing up, but I don’t think that will continue. I think we need to see a drop in prices to spur buyers into action. I don’t expect that to be much, but a modest decrease of maybe 2%. Currently we are up 5% vs. last year. June was up 5%, and July up 2%. This might also be partly a function of some of the new home sales on the higher end of the market. I would really like to see this flatten a little, as I think it would spur a little more buying.

Time on the market is also trending up vs. last year. We are up to 95 days. That is almost 4 weeks (25 days) more than this time last year. Last month was 80 days on market, but that was also 10 days more than July 2006. May sales were the lowest this year at 76 days on the market. In fact, May was the lowest since last October (2006) when the DoM was 72 days.

By now, I think anyone in the housing market has heard of the Sub-prime Mortgage Meltdown. It is still a big player on the market. Buyers that were marginal even six months ago are out of the market now. Buyers that are solid are still solid. If anything, those buyers are in a stronger position. Since there are fewer buyers, they have increased strength with sellers. Furthermore, I’m starting to see lenders trying to court those strong buyers. Face it, mortgage lenders make money by loaning money. They can only stop writing for so long before they need to look at making money again. Obviously the marginal buyers aren’t popular with the secondary market, so getting “A paper” mortgages back into the stream will become more of an imperative… and so I expect to see rates slide a little for the best buyers.

The current mortgage climate is tough. For buyers with weak credit history, the market is almost closed. Alt A loans (stated income, no documentation) will be away from the market for the foreseeable future, except for the rarest of good credit buyers. And expect that 0% down and even 3% down loans will be reserved for those with better credit.

I think it is getting to be time to say that smart investors need to get back in the market. Buy & Hold strategies will be heavily rewarded in the long run. Prices are good, rates are kicking for those with good credit. There might be a slight easing of prices in the coming months, but I wouldn’t count on it, and we won’t know that we’ve hit bottom until we are off of it.

Finally, remember that we can only get an accurate look in the rear-view mirror. We will only KNOW there has been a change in the market when we see it has already changed. We’ll know that change has taken place when we see all of the best deals are already gone.

S is for Staging

***I'm proud to have a guest host for today. Angel Walker is a professional stager here in the Atlanta area. Here is a quick bio about Angel.

Angel Walker is an Accredited Staging Professional Master™ and the owner of Staging Professionals, LLC. Angel received her training directly from Barb Schwarz, the CEO of Stagedhomes.com. Prior to founding Staging Professionals, LLC, Angel had over 10 years experience in corporate marketing. Angel specializes in Staging occupied homes
in North Atlanta. www.stagingprofessional.com

S is for Staging

There has been a ton of buzz around Staging in recent months. It has been great to see the word getting out about the value Staging can bring to the residential real estate market.

Why Stage?

There is over 9 months of inventory on the market right now. With so much to choose from, Sellers have to do everything they can to make their house stand out among the crowd. Statistics tell us more and more Buyers are shopping online for their next home. Staging prior to listing improves the pictures posted online and creates an inviting feeling for Buyers who view the home in person.

If you were selling your car tomorrow, you would probably get it detailed. When we Stage, we detail the house like you would detail your car. Where is your equity?

There are several myths about Staging, and I would like to dispel a few of them.

Myth #1: Staging is decorating.

Staging is actually the opposite of decorating. Stagers de-personalize a property so that a Buyer can make their own connection to the home. There have been times when I felt like I’d known the Sellers for years after viewing their home. That is not the impression a Seller wants to make upon a Buyer. The goal is to get a Buyer excited about creating their own memories in the house, not reliving someone else’s.

Myth #2: Staging is expensive.

Stagers can work with just about any budget. Sellers have to determine how much time and effort they can put into preparing their home for sale. If money is tight, hire a Stager for a Consultation. This gives Sellers a roadmap of recommendations they can implement themselves.

To make the most impact in the shortest amount of time, hiring a Stager to do the work is the way to go. Many Stagers work in teams. The combined creativity of several professionals trained and motivated to Stage cannot be put into a Consultation. Every time I’ve worked on a Hands-On Staging project, I’ve been blown away by the transformation. The feeling of the property changes. It’s hard to describe in words, but it is what I love most about this industry.

Every Stager sets their own pricing. Find a few Stagers in your area and contact them directly to get a feel for how they work and how they price their services.

Myth #3: I’ll just take down my family photos.

Stagers look at the entire house, up and down, inside and out. If it is included in the sale, the Stager is looking at it. Are the light fixtures full of cobwebs? Is the carpet worn and stained? Is the bathroom too dated for the price range? How does the furniture flow? Stagers point out recommendations to improve the property so that it compares favorably to the competition. The recommendations are prioritized so the Seller can decide what they are comfortable doing within their budget and time frame.

Why hire a Stager?

We love what we do and we bring passion and creativity into every client’s home to assist them in achieving their goal of selling as quickly as possible for the most money.

Angel Walker
Accredited Staging Professional Master
Staging Professionals, LLC
Specializing in Staging Occupied Homes in North Atlanta
www.stagingprofessional.com