Project Pink... or Green... whatever

In response to janeAnne's post about What would you do if money were no object to build a dream green home, I had to expand to a full post.

Here is what I originally responded with in the comments of her post:

If money were no object... but taste was:

• Active Solar water heating, and power generation.
• Passive solar heating and cooling.
• Xeriscaping.
  
• Intelligent house systems to reduce energy usage.
• Landscape design to reduce heating a cooling loads.

I know that there are more expensive technologies, but these could be incorporated into many current houses.

I followed up, answering questions with this comment:

janeAnne - I'm not a huge windmill in the neighborhood fan. I don't want to live under one, and I know that they will have a heavy NIMBY effect (Not In My BackYard).

On the other hand, active solar can be hidden in a house, no matter the style. I have heard of some roofing materials now that incorporate solar photo-voltaic cells and are almost indistinguishable from standard roofing.

Passive solar is an entire design philosophy, but things like sun-rooms and courtyards can be used to distribute air and light around the house. Overhangs can block heat during the summer, but allow solar heating in the winter.

Xeriscaping to save water... and make for a lower maintenance level... obvious choice. But, by using native plants, it can still be quite attractive. The overall landscaping can use little things like trees that block solar heat gain in the yard during the summer, but allow it during the winter. Blocking prevailing winds to allow the house to have a heat island is another option.

And, since I am a tool guy, what could be better than tools and technology turning things off and on, as well as optimizing everything to run more efficiently.

I had another response in the comments, but I'll refrain. So, without further ado, here is the expanded and explained list.

• Active Solar water heating and power generation
  

It should probably say active solar power generation and water heating, but... I didn't write that. However, in the summer, the greatest power use is on days with the most sun. So, having solar cells to create electricity to power A/C would just make sense. During the winter, the clear days are also usually the coldest, but instead of electric heat, why not use solar heat gain to heat water, and then circulate the water for radiant heat? The hot water could also be used to preheat the hot water for the house. A boiler running on natural gas could heat the water in place of or in addition to the solar heating.

• Passive solar heating and cooling

Unlike the first suggestion, this would require incorporation into the design of the home. Passive solar is a great way to heat a property in the winter in sunny areas. The basics are mass and glass. The sun shining into the area is used to heat mass. After the sun goes down, the mass continues to radiate the heat back into the house. Stone, brick, water and other materials with a lot of mass help to smooth the temperatures out. Think of a house with a two story greenhouse on the south side. In the greenhouse, the mass is situated to allow solar heating during the day. As the sun sets, additional insulating material covers the windows to reduce heat loss. The warmth from the sun-room is moved around the house.

During the summer, the light is blocked during the day, and the area is allowed to cool at night. The cool mass will help to lower the temperature in the house during the day. Appropriate overhangs can block the summer sun, but let the winter sun shine in as well.

• Xeriscaping
  

Simply put, this is landscaping to reduce additional water needs. Often through the use of native plants, less maintenance and water is used.

• Intelligent house systems to reduce energy usage

Most of us know that in a two story house, altering the HVAC vents from summer to winter will allow better distribution of air. Window treatments can be used as additional insulators. Operating heating, cooling and water heating systems only during times that they are being utilized also saves resources.

While none of these things are terribly difficult to accomplish, most of us don't fully utilize them because we don't think about it, or it isn't convenient. And, further efficiencies can be obtained from intelligent automation.

• Landscape design to reduce heating a cooling loads
  

This has nothing to do with xeriscaping. Through using deciduous tress (with leaves that drop during the winter) the summer sun can be partially blocked from heating the home and yard, but during the winter, the rays of the sun will heat the home and yard. Shrubs and evergreens can be used to block winter winds that cool part of the exterior of the house. In warmer climates, using the right vegetation can reduce the heat island effect of driveways and sidewalks.

None of these things are huge, and all are possible right now for reasonable cost. I know that I didn't have to work with a budget, but oddly, I think that the biggest part of the benefits are available with simpler technologies. The exotic technologies may produce additional savings, but I don't think they are cost efficient... and in some cases I don't think they are attractive or practical.

Is a clear sky blue?

Sitting down this morning getting my Fox News fix, I noticed a release by the NAR that has me re-thinking a position I have taken...

Here is the link to the NAR news release. To summarize, the position the NAR takes is that housing will start to pick up in 2008. Existing home sales will rebound, although new homes will lag for another year.

Well, I've been saying this for a few months (go back and look at my Gwinnett Market Reports if you don't believe me). And so, when the NAR says the same think, I need to re-assess my position.

Why, you ask?

Because the NAR started calling the bottom of the market and the rebound before the decline was in full swing. And that really ticks me off. I don't have a problem with putting a good spin on things. We all do it, and sometimes we just need to in order to remind people about the other side of the coin. Whether it is a Buyer's Market or a Seller's Market, it is a crappy market for half of the people in a transaction...

But, it's one thing to put your best foot forward, and quite another to say that everything is always perfect. I run numbers for my market... and I make predictions based on those numbers. When I am wrong, I acknowledge it, and when the news just sucks, I say it. I don't try to speak out of both sides of my mouth just to make sure that I'm covered.

Right now, if the NAR announced that skies were blue, I'd run outside to check.

Keep in mind that I am not only a member of my association in order to have access to the MLS (we don't have to be), but rather, I am currently active in the association (until tomorrow's meeting, I am the chairman of the RPAC committee). No, I'm not being deposed... my tenure is coming to a scheduled end.

So, what do we do about it?

Of the 33.548 real estate agents on A/R... as of a moment ago... I'd bet that the vast majority are members of the NAR. I know that the majority are ticked at the NAR over one thing or another. But, I would bet there are about 50 that are actually active in their local association. I bet half don't even know who is President of their local association, much less the state association.

So, get involved. Make your voice heard [I have NO idea this post was going this way].

And, when the NAR issues these reports, grab some salt, and run your own numbers.

Thoughts on the Foreclosure Bailout

Everyone has weighed in with their opinions about the proposed government bailout of some of the 1.2 million people facing foreclosure... I guess I'll toss out my nickel (side thought... if everyone that has offered an opinion actually gave up the nickel, WE could bail out the people facing foreclosure...)

I don't like government bailouts.

I'm a libertarian (I haven't joined the party, so I'm not a Libertarian). I don't believe that government has a role in every part of our lives. I think that the US Constitution is the guideline for the structure of our laws... and the role the government is supposed to play.

Even after looking at the Constitution twice, I can't find where it says that people that make bad decisions... mistakes even... should be bailed out by the government. And, that is what we are dealing with here. Banks lowered their standards for giving away money (and that is what they were doing, largely, giving away money). And consumers took out loans that they really didn't have a plan to repay.

So, who are the real victims here?

Is it the banks that are getting stuck with absolutely crappy loan portfolios? No. They got exactly what they deserved when some of them were driven right out of business.

Is it the borrowers that bought $500,000 homes and thought that their payments would remain at $1600/mo. forever? Or maybe the people that refinanced and bought bass boats and Suburbans with their "equity? Maybe it's the investors that bought property with 125% loans and then tried to put in minimal effort for maximum return with a flip? No, nope, and nuh-uh. Again, they ignored the risks so that they could do what they wanted to do. Being able to get someone to finance them only served as justification that their desires were not out of line.

Is it the mortgage backed security buyers? It wasn't, until the government decided to change the terms of the securities they bought.

But what about the fraud and predatory lenders?

Even running rampantly, fraud only accounts for a small percentage of total loan volume. So, it isn't much different than the teacher making everyone put their heads down on the desk because one kid in the class shot a spitball. And, many of the "predatory lenders" aren't that predatory. Sure, it is fun to talk about greed (a term that is vaporous to define anyway) and taking advantage of people in precarious situations, but we need to also keep in mind that the risk/reward equation means that these borrowers presented a higher risk. As some states have found out, when they "clamp down on predatory lenders" and cap rates or otherwise try to control market forces, they end up limiting choices for the very people they are try to protect.

So, instead of writing sweeping legislation, it would be much more effective to enforce current laws against fraud.

So, where does that leave us?

It leaves us with the only real victims being the one group that isn't being protected. And those that made irresponsible decisions being rewarded for those decisions. Instead of finding the 60,000 loans that might actually involve fraud, and prosecuting the people responsible, the government is looking at "fixing" 1,200,000 loans. And, while "fixing" those loans, nullifying agreed upon contracts.

It is a bad precedent.

Market Update for Gwinnett County, October/November 2007

As I announced back in the middle of November, there is going to be a format change beginning this month. I will be including Absorbtion Rates in the market reports now. This will give a clearer picture of the direction of the market, as well as help bring a bit of focus to the rest of the numbers. I’m also going to be stressing the listed/solds percentage to help give a better picture of the market conditions.

I also have corrected number for both September and October. The preliminary numbers are in for November, but they don’t look right yet, so while I will mention them, I would like to remind you that they aren’t solid numbers.

Let’s start with some of the classic information that I have been including on these reports.

The New listings data shows that new listings for both October and November were up about 2% vs. last year, while September was down about 5%. I’d really like to see the listings vs. last year drop to the negative numbers, because there is simply too much inventory for the level of buyer activity I see. However, because the final numbers aren’t in for November, I expect to see a rise in listings… exactly the opposite of what I want to see.

Solds for September were down 43%!!! Those numbers are holding up to the corrections. I hope that it isn’t right, but I have to assume now that it is close. However, the October number rebounded significantly. Closings were down 18% vs. last year. That is the best showing (vs. the same month the previous year) since April. To moderate, though, October 2006 was a particularly crappy month. November is down by 65%, but I know that those numbers will change in the coming weeks, so we will be revisiting that. With the exception of the August to September number*, it is easy to see the correlation between pendings and solds from month to month. If the pattern holds, I expect to see the closed transactions down around 20% for November when all is said and done.

While the preliminary numbers came in for November, both October and September average prices were changed. Those numbers are (with change from last year): September, $229,428 (-0.8%) October, $226,820 (+1.5%) November, $238,548 (+2.3%). I expect to see the November average drop to be more inline with the other numbers… but I can’t begin to guess where it will fall.

Now, let’s talk about the new numbers.

The uglier number is the percentage of solds vs. new listings. Let me start by saying that I have been tracking this number since January, 2005. The highest percentage since then was 85% in December of 2005. For the last few months, that number has been hanging around the mid 30% range. This means that one house sells for every three that come on the market. August through November show the percentage of solds vs. new listings to be 37%, 32%, 32%, and 19%. The November number is ugly, but I think I will need to revise that to be inline with the other numbers when I see something that is more final.

The Absorption Rate is how long, given the current market conditions, it would take to sell the current market inventory… assuming that there were no more listings added. This number is used by all types of businesses to gauge market activity vs. inventory levels. I’m not going to go into the formulas, because I don’t want to tell me competitors everything… I calculate the numbers for the 12 month average, six month average and three month average. Comparing the numbers gives an indication of the market heating or cooling. A balanced market usually has about a six month supply. Because these numbers are based upon November information, I expect all of them to drop slightly, with the most visible drop to be the three month average.

The 12 month average is 11.3 months of supply. The six month average slows to a 12.2 month supply of homes, while the three month average shows a 17.3 month supply. Of course, the three month average is the most volatile, and I expect to see it dropping to around 14 months after the rest of the numbers are in. That still isn’t good, but it is a bit better.

What that tells me is that the market is still cooling a bit, but it is close to flattening. It isn’t plummeting. I don’t have as much depth with these numbers as I do with the other numbers I’ve collected. My MLS doesn’t offer the historical statistics that I need for this calculation like they do for the other calculations.

I am still looking to see the market turn around in the spring. Of course, we won’t know it has turned until it has started back up. The best deals will be had before the turn. After the turn, investors and other buyers will have already started to bid up properties.

*The August to September pending to closed sale anomaly was a direct result of the Sub-prime Mortgage Meltdown. Many buyers found themselves unable to close after being approved for loans. After that time, the numbers went back to a more normal percentage of pending sales that followed through to closing.

Thanks, and look forward to my next report during the first week of January. Happy Holidays.

I'd almost consider running to answer this question...

So, it's like this...

First, the video is only 27 seconds long, so feel free to watch.

Now, let me tackle the answer.

Jamie, there isn't a quick and easy answer to the question, but it looks like you think there should be from your video. But, let's look at the causes, and let's see if we can find some possible solutions.

Causes:

• The fed, trying to keep the economy rolling after the terror attacks of 9/11 kept rates low. Those low rates made a lot of people think about taking advantage of them to buy homes... lower rate, better payments.
  
• Consumers decided to take advantage of that opportunity to not only buy houses, but to tap the equity in their homes while refinancing, since they could cash out, and keep the same payment.
  
• Many of those consumers got greedy and wanted to get more than they really should have. Instead of getting another 30 year fixed when they refi'd, they chose to go after something wilder and instead of 5.25% for 30 years, they got an interest only ARM for 2.5%... and then bought a bass boat and a new Tahoe.
  
• Buyers got the same kind of greedy. About the same time they figured out that they could get a $400,000 house with a real loan, they found out they could get a $600,000 home with a mortgage that they had no business being in. But, they wanted it and didn't care.
  
• Other buyers also got greedy, but in a different way. They found out that they could get out of their apartment, and into a house without spending any money. They could buy a house with 100% financing. They didn't care about the terms... it was less than their rent.
  
• Some mortgage brokers got greedy, too. They put people into whatever worked for the moment without regard to the future ability to repay. As soon as the loan closed, it was sold... so who cares.
• Some agents got greedy as well. They actually suggested that buyers get something wild just to get a bigger commission.
  
• Back to the fed... They raised rates in order to cool inflationary issues. Those "exotic mortgages" started to get pretty exotic...

Solutions:

• Personal responsibility.
  

Do you really think that any of the above things should be fixed by the government? I mean really.

• The fed was doing the right thing to respond to the financial needs of the country. Technicians may argue about whether it was too much, too little, too early or too late... but it was the right strategy.
  
• Nothing wrong with refinancing for a better rate. Nothing wrong with taking out a little cash to make the house better.
  
• When people start paying off credit cards things get a little gray. As we move into Tahoes, bass boats, and vacations, we are leaving gray and heading towards dark. Doing with an exotic mortgage product is just plain stupid.
  
• Buying too much house because you just want to... and can find a mortgage product that will let you... just plain stupid.
  
• As much as I like first time buyers, and want EVERYONE to own a home, some people just aren't ready. Not understanding what you are committing yourself to is... not responsible. (I won't say stupid, because first time buyers NEED a break, and they need the guidance of responsible professionals).
• I think that loan originators that don't care about the future of those that they pawn off crappy, unsuitable products upon are crossing an ethical line. it isn't going from bad to good, either.
  
• Agents... same thing.
  
• Again, the fed did what they needed to do for the situation. Same arguments as the first point.
  

So, there is the answer to your question.

Now, on to your point that you didn't ask a question about...

Why has your neighbor's home been on the market for six months?

The price is wrong for the market, marketing, or condition. It isn't the same real estate climate as two years ago. The house needs to be priced where it belongs, not where they buyer hopes it will be. Perhaps they can't afford to sell it at the price it should be at. If so, maybe it is because they were covered above.

The short answer is that as President, I won't do much to "fix" this problem. I will, however, tell people that the government is not their Mommy, and they need to be responsible for their own actions. If there is a surgical way to make the actions of greedy mortgage originators and real estate agents illegal, I'll pursue it. But, as is often the case, broad legislation usually hurts more people than it helps.

Is that my whole minute?

House values UP!?!

What? Is this guy crazy? Take a look...

S&P Index Reveals Price Changes in 20 Markets
Prices of single-family homes in the third quarter fell 4.5 percent nationwide compared with a year ago.

It was the largest drop since the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index was begun in 1988.

“We are fast approaching the rate of price decline seen at the end of the 1990-1991 recession,” Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR, wrote in a research note. “The odds strongly favor blowing past this mark in coming months.”

Robert J. Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets and the founder of the index, says: “Most of the metro areas continue to show declining or decelerating returns on both an annual and monthly basis. All 20 metro areas were in decline in September over August. Even the five metro areas that still have positive annual growth rates – Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Portland, and Seattle – show continued deceleration in returns."

Here is the one-year change in the 20 metro areas included in the index:

• Atlanta: 0.4 percent
• Boston: -3.2 percent
• Charlotte: 4.7 percent
• Chicago: -2.5 percent
• Cleveland: -4.0 percent
• Dallas: 0.2 percent
• Denver: -0.9 percent
• Detroit: -9.6 percent
• Las Vegas: -9 percent
• Los Angeles: -7 percent
• Miami: -10 percent
• Minneapolis: -4.5 percent
• New York: -3.6 percent
• Phoenix: -8.8 percent
• Portland: 2.2 percent
• San Diego: -9.6 percent
• San Francisco: -4.6 percent
• Seattle: 4.7 percent
• Tampa: -11.1 percent
• Washington: -6.6 percent

Source: Standard & Poor’s (11/27/07)

Ok, the numbers aren't stellar. But, Please note that Atlanta is up 0.4% annually. I have been showing Gwinnett County to be even better than that. Obviously, real estate isn't crashing here, but as mentioned in the article, appreciation is slowing. I don't think it is going to slow much more on a year over year basis, but we always see a slowdown this time of the year.

It's still nice to know that we came in fifth of the twenty largest metro areas. It just goes to show that even in a weak market there are pockets of strength. Please feel free to contact me with any questions. Also, look for my Gwinnett County Market report early next week.

Housing Starts down slightly, but Multi-Family are up...

So, what does that mean? First, let me toss out the original story.

Daily Real Estate News | November 21, 2007

Home Starts Up, Mostly Due to Multi-Family
U.S. home builders broke ground on more apartment buildings in October, driving housing starts up 3 percent to an unexpected seasonally adjusted rate of 1.229 million, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.

But builders trimmed permits for future building projects by 6.6 percent. They also cut back 7.3 percent on single-family homes to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 884,000, the lowest level of single-family home building since the last recession in October of 1991.

The levels varied regionally. Home starts in the Northeast rose 8.5 percent overall, and starts of single-family homes rose 29.5 percent. Single-family starts in the Midwest were up 15.1 percent with the overall increase at 21.1 percent.

In the South, overall starts dropped 4.6 percent and single-family starts fell 19.5 percent. Starts in the West rose 5.8 percent overall but single-family home starts dropped 8.1 percent.

Source: Thomas Financial, Dennis Moore (11/20/07)

Here is the link to the story from the NAR.

Of course, I want to focus on the numbers for the South. Starts are down by 4.6%, but SFR (Single Family Residential) Starts are down by 19.5%. That tells me that MFR (Multi-Family Residential) is well up. Why would that be? Well, MFR is another way of saying rental property. So, if builders are getting more orders for rental properties, the buyers are confident that they will be able to fill those units. It also means that buyers are confident that they will be able to pay off those units with the tenants moving in to them.

I have previously mentioned that it was looking like rents were expected to increase faster than previously expected. The "Sub-Prime Mortgage Meltdown" would be the main reason. People that were on the edge of affording a home before the SPMM are out of the market now. That increases demand on rentals... until the supply catches up, the price will rise.

So, let me sum this up into a nice, neat package.

• If you are a credit-worthy buyer, this might be a good time for you to exploit that. The market has a LOT of inventory, and deals are to be found.
  
• If you aren't buying, look for rent to go up.
  
• If you don't know if you are able to get credit, talk to a reputable mortgage broker. They can tell you if you are able to qualify for something, and what the terms will be.
• Rates are still incredibly low.
  

I am a long way from saying that everyone needs to rush back in to the real estate market. If your credit is shaky, I would recommend you sit on the sidelines a while longer while fixing your credit and building up some cash. I would also still counsel you to talk with a mortgage broker. A good mortgage broker can tell you the real ways to increase your credit scores.

If you need any referrals to a good mortgage broker, feel free to contact me through my website.

Gwinnett County Schools looking at a major redistricting

I'm a little late to the party on this, but I would bet that there are a lot of people that were even further out of the loop than me...

The Gwinnett County (GA) Schools are looking at a major redistricting. I have put them in the list based on the High School Cluster. Some of the schools affected are elementary, some are middle schools, others are high schools. The clusters that look to be affected are:

• Grayson
• Mill Creek
• Lanier
• North Gwinnett
• Central Gwinnett
• Dacula
• Grayson
• Archer
• Mountain View
• Collins Hill

Here is a link to the information on the Gwinnett County School System website.

It looks like there are a few Elementary Schools that will be affected in 2008, and then the bulk of the plan will be taking effect in 2009. In all, there will be 12 new schools added, and 3 replacement schools.

The Board of Education held public comment meetings on November 13th and 15th. They will be issuing their decision on December 13th.

While wandering a little deeper in the school system's website, I came across their future projections. On this page, I see that the school system projects (conservatively) that they will need 35 new schools before 2012. By my math, it looks like the recently proposed changes only cover 1/3 of that need, so I would expect more of the same.

New pricing model

I'm still out here at the National Association of REALTORS(R) Convention in Las Vegas. So far, it has been a pretty cool experience. Sorry I don't have any pictures, I actually have carried my digital camera with me everywhere... but I haven't even seen the strip.

So, what interesting stuff is here for consumers? Just about nothing. But, as a REALTOR(R) there have been quite a few interesting revelations. One thing I can say for sure is that I have found a new pricing model that has amazing potential. CMAs (Comparative Market Analysis) look to be a thing of the past for me. I attended a seminar yesterday on "Right Price Analysis", or Absorption Rate Pricing models.

I don't think it could sound any drier... Oddly, the session was the most entertaining one I've been to. The material was extremely interesting, and the presentation was excellent.

"So, what are you going to do about it, Lane?"

Look for a new method for me to deliver my market reports. I will be using absorption rates in my market reports. Basically, this will cover how much inventory is on the market in different segments, and what percentage of listings are actually selling. It will be a much more accurate picture of the market, and can be scaled up or down. I will literally be able to give a reasonably accurate picture of the market activity in a subdivision, as well as its direction.

I isn't the most exciting thing to hear about, but I hope that the results will be more helpful to people getting in to the market as buyers and/or sellers. If you want to be ahead of the curve, call me or send me an email, and we can do a RPA for your home that you are looking to sell. (please keep in mind that if you are currently listed with another agent, I cannot talk to you about your property, or I could lose my license).

I have a few more classes today, and I hope to run across some more exciting information.

Crawlspaces? Save money...

I'm going to deviate a little from my normal pattern here.

I just ran across a story (printed, sorry no link) about encapsulated crawlspaces. It was touting the energy savings that could be realized by encapsulating the crawlspace. I have seen some claims as high as 15% savings in heating a cooling.

More importantly, I think there are some other benefits that could be realized, especially with older homes. one of the things I see all of the time is missing or incomplete vapor barriers. What happens then is that increased (uncontrolled) moisture can be introduced in to the house through the crawlspace. Even when the moisture barrier is complete and well sealed, the tradition is for the crawlspace to be openly vented to outside air. So... if it rains, that will also introduce uncontrolled moisture into the crawlspace. Of course, all of this moisture is going to end up in the house.

The moisture isn't necessarily bad, but the problem is that areas like crawlspaces don't have good airflow. Moisture + stagnant air = mold. Mold is bad.

So, if we can install a system that tightly controls humidity, lowers counter temperature air infusion, and therefore creates cleaner air that is more efficient to heat or cool, it sounds like a win/win.

The downside is that most of the systems I have heard of cost from $6,000 to $12,000 to install. For many homes, that is money that will neither be recaptured through resale or through energy savings. But, it may be something that decreases contaminants in the inside air.

Food for thought.

I'm giving away $1000...

...to a Senior at Parkview High School in Lilbun, GA. Now we just need to see who it is.

Sometime next week I hope to announce the details, but I have decided to offer a $1000 scholarship for a graduating Senior at Parkview HS. I hope that I am able to expand the program to some more schools in Gwinnett County in the next few years, but this is a start. I'm meeting next Monday with the counsellor at the school that administers these types of things, and we are going to figure out the rules and requirements.

So, if you are a high school senior at Parkview, or know one... let them know. There will be some qualifications, but they won't have anything to do with real estate or any other career choice. It will also not be income restricted or based on GPA or other direct school performance... or athletic performance.

Curious?

I'd love comments...

What do you want?

I just have a question.

I'm curious what you are looking for in your next house. You don't have to be in the market right now. I'm just curious how the real world stacks up to the National Association of REALTORS(R) Buyer Profile surveys. I'm not going to list the attributes that they have pointed to, because I don't want to pollute the results. Besides, I have written about the NAR surveys previously.

Feel free to comment, or even email me it you'd prefer.

What is a better investment?

I was up late, and caught a little bit of the Nightline episode where they featured a "bubble blogger" in California. One of the statements he made was that housing was not a good investment compared to the stock market over the last 30 years. That line was screaming at me.

I went to Google to try and find national average home appreciation rates for the last 30 years. I wasn't able to. I was able to find the annualized appreciation for the last 10 years though. According to S&P (warning, pdf file), average annualized returns for homes were 10.93%, while the stock market was 7.63% for the same period.

So, my next stop was to open up an excel spreadsheet and start making some calculations. I based the interest rate at 8%. I ran the calculation based on 5% down, 10% and 20% as well. I also calculated the return on stock purchases either with cash or on margin (50% down). I thought the numbers would be pretty tough on the stock market, but I didn't think it would come out this lopsided. I based this on a $200,000 investment.

(***Warning, these are not annualized numbers, but overall returns for a 10 year period)

• For a buyer putting down $10,000 (5%), they would have a 10 year return of 2215%
• For a buyer putting down $20,000 (10%), they would have a 10 year return of 1145%
• For a buyer putting down $40,000 (20%), they would have a 10 year return of 610%
• For a buyer paying cash, they would have a 10 year return of 182%
• For a stock investor buying $200,000 in the S&P 500, they would have a 10 year return of 109%
• For a stock investor buying $200,000 in the S&P500 on margin ($100,000 investment, 8% APR), they would have a 10 year return of 137%

Like I said, I was sure that real estate would come out better because of the power of leverage. However, I didn't expect it to be that lopsided.

I'm sure that there are mistakes in my methodology that can be found. I spent a few minutes putting this together, however, there are also a lot of other items that would go in favor of real estate. among the items that I didn't account for that would increase the real world rate of return for real estate are these:

• Home Mortgage Interest Deduction
• Value of rent (you can live in the house, but not in the stock)
• Lack of volatility (S&P rated homes at 2.07% v. stocks at 15.28% volatility)

Of course, there are a few items that would offset these:

• Home maintenance
• Utilities
  
• Repairs

But, I would still argue that home ownership is CLEARLY the first step towards a solid financial future.

Market Update for Gwinnett County, August 2007 (updated 10-17-07)

I need to change the format on these numbers just a bit. I have been trying to put out the market report around the 15^th of the month for the previous month (10/15 for Sept., for example). However, the numbers have been changing so dramatically that I am seeing changes for the previous month (seeing changes to August when I do the 10/15 report) and the changes are dramatic. So, in response, I need to back up the reports just a little. I will try to get future reports out in the first week of the month, but they will be lagging a little over 30 days. This means that around the first week of November I will post a September report.

At this time I will be updating the August report.

August prices are pointing up, but preliminary numbers for September are pointing the other way. I think we need to see a drop in prices to spur buyers into action. I don’t expect that to be much, but a modest decrease of maybe 2%. Currently we are up 4% vs. last year. June was up 5%, and July up 2%. This might also be partly a function of some of the new home sales on the higher end of the market. I would really like to see this flatten a little, as I think it would spur a little more buying.

Time on the market is also trending up vs. last year. We are up to 88 days. That is almost 3 weeks (18 days) more than this time last year. Last month was 80 days on market, but that was also 10 days more than July 2006. May sales were the lowest this year at 76 days on the market. In fact, May was the lowest since last October (2006) when the DoM was 72 days.

By now, I think anyone in the housing market has heard of the Sub-prime Mortgage Meltdown. It is still a big player on the market. Buyers that were marginal even six months ago are out of the market now. Buyers that are solid are still solid. If anything, those buyers are in a stronger position. Since there are fewer buyers, they have increased strength with sellers. Furthermore, I’m starting to see lenders trying to court those strong buyers. Face it, mortgage lenders make money by loaning money. They can only stop writing for so long before they need to look at making money again. Obviously the marginal buyers aren’t popular with the secondary market, so getting “A paper” mortgages back into the stream will become more of an imperative… and so I expect to see rates slide a little for the best buyers.

The current mortgage climate is tough. For buyers with weak credit history, the market is almost closed. Alt A loans (stated income, no documentation) will be away from the market for the foreseeable future, except for the rarest of good credit buyers. And expect that 0% down and even 3% down loans will be reserved for those with better credit.

I think it is getting to be time to say that smart investors need to get back in the market. Buy & Hold strategies will be heavily rewarded in the long run. Prices are good, rates are kicking for those with good credit. There might be a slight easing of prices in the coming months, but I wouldn’t count on it, and we won’t know that we’ve hit bottom until we are off of it.

Finally, remember that we can only get an accurate look in the rear-view mirror. We will only KNOW there has been a change in the market when we see it has already changed. We’ll know that change has taken place when we see all of the best deals are already gone. Currently, I can’t get an accurate picture of overall market activity for at least 30 days after the end of the month. That means that the market could be well into a turn before the numbers will bear it out. And, while I don’t know that we should expect increasing values terribly soon, I don’t think prices will drop much either.

Calling one developer... you don't know who you are yet.

I must admit that I was a bit amazed at the reaction to my last post. On Active Rain, it received a Feature within an hour of being posted. It was also one of my most viewed and commented blog entires. I was shocked that the comments weren't closer to the "Are you nuts?" type.

So, just to get one step closer to reality, here is a compromise first step. Let's team up to build houses for a variety of car people. We're out there. There are at least as many of us as there are horse people, maybe even golf people. Ok, maybe there are more people that hit the links on a Saturday than there are building street rods, but you get my point. There are a LOT of folks out here in the world that love cars. Not only do they love cars, but they have more than two or three. Not only do they have more than two or three, but they like to work on them. For many car people, working on the car might involve a lot more than changing the oil in the driveway.

"What can we do with that little nugget, Lane?"

Let me derail you for a moment. Take a look at a couple of posts I tossed out previously.

• First, there is a post about specializing.
  
• Next up, I posted about unique selling propositions.
  
• Lastly, let me once again point out the NAR Buyer's Study saying that over-sized garages place behind only central air-conditioning on buyer's wish lists (sorry, I don't have an NAR link, but here is the post I made about it).

So, buyers want bigger garages, specialists thrive when generalists fail, and in order to sell in a weak climate a unique selling proposition is one of the key weapons. Builders are choking on inventory in many areas, but other spots are selling like hotcakes. Even in a relatively local area, one development can't keep up, and the next can't keep its head above water.

Of course, pricing is one of the things that can make a difference... but so is value. Building what others don't is one way of creating value. If it is building something desirable, it will separate the leader from the pack.

Instead of building houses and needing to give away TVs and 5%+ commissions, why not build something that will draw buyers. There are some unique (and relatively inexpensive) marketing opportunities. Also, the word of mouth could be amazing. Many people in the car culture community are involved in clubs, and word of a development that was geared towards them would spread like wildfire.

You just need the right type of agent to handle the process and get the ball rolling. Let's team up. Contact me for more info.

Let's build a subdivision that will have the buyers lining up... in their coolest cars.

X Prize

So, how many of you have heard of this? The X Prize.

Back when I wrote the A-Z series, it was my back up plan for the letter X. Currently, it doesn't have much relevance to real estate, but one day it might.

The original X Prize was $10,000,000 to be awarded to the first entrant to launch a craft in to space, and then turn around and do it again with the same craft within a short period of time. Another current X Prize is for Genomics.

The X Prize that grabbed my attention is the Automotive X Prize. The basics involve developing a car that is capable of at least 100mpg, can carry 4 people, and emit under a certain amount of pollution... and it has to be marketable to real people. No carbon fiber, $1M concept cars that look like a cross between a VW Bus and a bar of soap. Think about something more like an accord that has some evolved technology and can be sold for under $30k. I've even decided how I think it might be possible...

"But, this relates to real estate how?"

I'd love to see an X Prize that involved low cost building designs for developing countries. Of course, I'd like to see this developed in a manner that it could positively impact local economies, providing jobs and profits...

Just a thought... and this isn't what I would do with the money.

It's about the garage!

I just had the opportunity to wander through the October issue of REALTOR(R) magazine. Cars and Cable caught my eye (pg. 14). As I had previously mentioned in a blog post in July, oversized garages made a pretty good showing. Second place.

Now, before you go gloating about second place, keep in mind that first place was central air conditioning... which is pretty tough to beat, and almost everything on the market is already equipped. Also notable is that garages moved up from 5th place in the last survey (2004). And it is a HUGE jump. A full 56% of buyers said they were ready to spend premium money for an oversized garage this year, vs. only 6% in 2004.

Sure, SUVs have contributed to the desire to have a larger garage, but we have a car-centric culture. Americans LOVE their cars. And we love having a lot of them. And... we want to park them inside.

I'm not surprised... I'm just ahead of the curve.

When you are ready to step up to a big garage in Gwinnett County, I am the REALTOR(R) that knows garages AND houses.

Tuscany condo in Mid-town

Soon to hit the MLS, you saw it here first...

This is a great 1 bedroom/1 bathroom condo that also features a den/office. With 966 square feet (tax records) of interior room, and a 103 square foot patio (builder's plan), there is more space than in other 1bd/1ba floorplans.

This is a great top-floor unit with a view out to mid-town, overlooking Juniper Street. It features a lovely double sided fireplace between the living room and the den, halogen track lighting, and a huge walk-through closet in the master bedroom. It also features beautiful wood floors throughout, and luxurious solid surface countertops in the kitchen and bath.

All kitchen appliances will remain, as will the washer and dryer in the laundry room off of the kitchen. there is also a covered parking space included with the unit.

Walk to Piedmont Park, or to one of the many restaurants in the area. Located between 10th Street and 8th Street, just one block off of Peachtree, Tuscany is incredibly convenient. While others are still fighting the traffic on I-75, I-85 or GA400, you can be home and relaxing in front of the TV, working out in the complex gym, or floating in the pool.

Welcome home. This rare floorplan is offered at $209,900. The seller is motivated, and will consider a lease purchase as well.

Here is a link to the property on my site...

The sky is falling... and the bubble is coming...

Sorry to disappoint.

I picked up a story today about a "Bubble Blogger" in San Fransisco. I actually enjoyed the article. Here is the link. I have read a few of these bubble blogs in the last couple of years. Some are quite educated, and others are just rants. I actually haven't read this particular blog, although I will be putting it on my reading list. I just wanted to talk about the news story...

First, was it a slow news day in San Fransisco? Was there nothing else negative happening in real estate for the paper? The reason I say this is two-fold. Not only is there some sort of perverse desire on the parts of some in the media to constantly have a negative real estate story in the news, but this one isn't even that strong.

Next, if one makes a plausible, but vague prediction, and then attaches no time frame to it, it will probably come true. I can predict that the stock market will hit 20,000 as well as say that it will suffer a 10% correction. In the next several years, both of those will come true. That isn't some amazing feat of prognostication.

Finally, I see that Mr. Killelea was looking to buy a house in Berkeley in 1999. I'm curious (and maybe one of you agents local to that market can tell me) what the prices were then, and what they are now. Had he bought the over-priced home eight years ago, what would his position be now? What was the median price in 1999, and what is it now?

In conclusion, I just want to point out that it is easy to make a vague prediction with no timeline and eventually have it come close to true. Making a specific prediction about the market, that includes a reasonable timeline is a LOT more difficult. But, let me say here that another housing bubble is coming. I won't say when or where, but it's coming...

Oh yeah... Comments? Ratings?

What are we doing here? Looking at the housing landscape...

This morning, the NAR kindly sent me this little update through the Real Estate Insights eNewsletter. It explains, quite well, the steps that we will need to move through before the market stabilizes, both locally and nationally. And then, this afternoon, in my REALTOR(R) Magazine Daily Online, I got this story.

Both have something underlying that I think is very important. Congress needs to stay out of the mortgage meltdown issue. While there might be a need for revision of the jumbo loan limits for some high priced markets, anything beyond that will have unintended consequences that would be bad for the housing market. (BTW, unintended consequences seems to be my comment theme of the day) In the second story, there is a mention of Barney Frank calling for more regulation of the mortgage market. He feels it would increase confidence... and it may. But, it would also increase compliance costs, and slow funding. And, as we know from the myriad of regulations that abound for everything the government want to protect, those that mean to be unethical will still be unethical. Those that are hell-bent on buying something they can't afford, will... and they'll still default. But, there will be those on the margin that won't be able to buy their dream home because there is another point of interest, since the regulation means more costs for the lender.

And, as well highlighted in the first linked article, the correction is underway. Before Congress could even think of acting, the market started to fix itself. Is it going to hurt people? Absolutely. Will it hurt people that were responsible in selecting appropriately priced homes and financing products? Not so much. Mostly, the people that will be hurt are those that used products that they didn't understand to buy houses they really couldn't afford. Some did it in ignorance, but many just didn't care or didn't think through the logical conclusion of their actions.

Am I mean to say so? Maybe. But, that doesn't mean I'm wrong.

The good news is that the needed steps are happening (without Congress critters, thank you very much) and the housing market is correcting. Deals are staring smart buyers right in the face, and those deals are selling. As we look in the rear-view mirror of market reports, we can see that the worst is over in many places... and other places still may have some correcting to do.

I like to hang it out on my market reports. For Gwinnett County, I'm calling the bottom of this cycle to be in the next six months. Of course, I might not really see it for a month or two after it passes. And, if something wild happens, all bets are off.