Sunday, September 30, 2007

The sky is falling... and the bubble is coming...

Sorry to disappoint.

I picked up a story today about a "Bubble Blogger" in San Fransisco. I actually enjoyed the article. Here is the link. I have read a few of these bubble blogs in the last couple of years. Some are quite educated, and others are just rants. I actually haven't read this particular blog, although I will be putting it on my reading list. I just wanted to talk about the news story...

First, was it a slow news day in San Fransisco? Was there nothing else negative happening in real estate for the paper? The reason I say this is two-fold. Not only is there some sort of perverse desire on the parts of some in the media to constantly have a negative real estate story in the news, but this one isn't even that strong.

Next, if one makes a plausible, but vague prediction, and then attaches no time frame to it, it will probably come true. I can predict that the stock market will hit 20,000 as well as say that it will suffer a 10% correction. In the next several years, both of those will come true. That isn't some amazing feat of prognostication.

Finally, I see that Mr. Killelea was looking to buy a house in Berkeley in 1999. I'm curious (and maybe one of you agents local to that market can tell me) what the prices were then, and what they are now. Had he bought the over-priced home eight years ago, what would his position be now? What was the median price in 1999, and what is it now?

In conclusion, I just want to point out that it is easy to make a vague prediction with no timeline and eventually have it come close to true. Making a specific prediction about the market, that includes a reasonable timeline is a LOT more difficult. But, let me say here that another housing bubble is coming. I won't say when or where, but it's coming...

Oh yeah... Comments? Ratings?

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