MLS? Zillow? Trulia?

I ran across a blog post by Jay Thompson regarding a story in the Wall Street Journal about on-line home searches. He noted that in his area the WSJ had it wrong. He researched the numbers for the local MLS, Trulia and Zillow. His findings were that Zillow only showed about 10-31% of the listings shown on the MLS, and that Trulia only had between 69-90%.

So, I decided that I should take a look at a few zones in Gwinnett County.

• For 30087, I came up with 442 (FMLS), 457 (Zillow), and 482 (Trulia)

Hhmm… That seems odd. Reviewing 10 of the 33 pages of Trulia, I couldn’t find ANY FSBOs. How can they have more? Well, about 20% of the listings seem to have been sold or expired (and not relisted). I found a similar percentage on Zillow. This was based on a sampling. Furthermore, I found homes on FMLS that were not listed on either Trulia or Zillow. Trulia was a little more accurate.

• Next up, 30043. 842 (FMLS), 467 (Zillow), and 447 (Trulia)

But wait… there are still expired listings from agents, and homes that have already sold but not been updated in the system. I am finding some interesting listings, too. For example, there is a $7.9M property on Zillow (make me move…) that isn’t on the MLS.

• Finally, 30518… 576 (FMLS), 419 (Trulia), and 3673 (Zillow)

What? Ok, now I’m seeing something. Not one of the properties on the first page is in the MLS. Wow, they must have a lot of listings to peruse. Why would anyone use the MLS? Oh, wait… Several ARE in the MLS, just not in the ZIP code that I searched. All of the first page are listed in multiple ZIP codes on Zillow. So, how many houses are acually listed by Zillow in 30518? I don’t know, and I’m not going to wade through them to find out. But, if I were searching for a property in Buford, GA, I’d be a little annoyed that I had to wade through homes in Chamblee (15 miles and 45 minutes away), and Dallas (GA… but still over an hour away) to find houses that were actually in the area I was looking.

So, Lane, what do you think?

I think that Zillow sucks. I’ve done a previous post about their absolute lack of accuracy in their Zestimates in this area. Trulia is a much better choice here, but still not likely to give the latest up to date info, nor all of the options. FMLS is a better choice.

If you want to find a home in Gwinnett County, let me know. I can set you up on a search within FMLS that will go to a custom website… just for you. It’s called the Client Gateway.

Lane.Bailey on Yahoo IM

Or you can email me through my contact form at GarageHomesUSA (When I post my direct email, I get spammed. I apologize in advance for the extra step).

I look forward to hearing from you.

Project Pink... or Green... whatever

In response to janeAnne's post about What would you do if money were no object to build a dream green home, I had to expand to a full post.

Here is what I originally responded with in the comments of her post:

If money were no object... but taste was:

• Active Solar water heating, and power generation.
• Passive solar heating and cooling.
• Xeriscaping.
  
• Intelligent house systems to reduce energy usage.
• Landscape design to reduce heating a cooling loads.

I know that there are more expensive technologies, but these could be incorporated into many current houses.

I followed up, answering questions with this comment:

janeAnne - I'm not a huge windmill in the neighborhood fan. I don't want to live under one, and I know that they will have a heavy NIMBY effect (Not In My BackYard).

On the other hand, active solar can be hidden in a house, no matter the style. I have heard of some roofing materials now that incorporate solar photo-voltaic cells and are almost indistinguishable from standard roofing.

Passive solar is an entire design philosophy, but things like sun-rooms and courtyards can be used to distribute air and light around the house. Overhangs can block heat during the summer, but allow solar heating in the winter.

Xeriscaping to save water... and make for a lower maintenance level... obvious choice. But, by using native plants, it can still be quite attractive. The overall landscaping can use little things like trees that block solar heat gain in the yard during the summer, but allow it during the winter. Blocking prevailing winds to allow the house to have a heat island is another option.

And, since I am a tool guy, what could be better than tools and technology turning things off and on, as well as optimizing everything to run more efficiently.

I had another response in the comments, but I'll refrain. So, without further ado, here is the expanded and explained list.

• Active Solar water heating and power generation
  

It should probably say active solar power generation and water heating, but... I didn't write that. However, in the summer, the greatest power use is on days with the most sun. So, having solar cells to create electricity to power A/C would just make sense. During the winter, the clear days are also usually the coldest, but instead of electric heat, why not use solar heat gain to heat water, and then circulate the water for radiant heat? The hot water could also be used to preheat the hot water for the house. A boiler running on natural gas could heat the water in place of or in addition to the solar heating.

• Passive solar heating and cooling

Unlike the first suggestion, this would require incorporation into the design of the home. Passive solar is a great way to heat a property in the winter in sunny areas. The basics are mass and glass. The sun shining into the area is used to heat mass. After the sun goes down, the mass continues to radiate the heat back into the house. Stone, brick, water and other materials with a lot of mass help to smooth the temperatures out. Think of a house with a two story greenhouse on the south side. In the greenhouse, the mass is situated to allow solar heating during the day. As the sun sets, additional insulating material covers the windows to reduce heat loss. The warmth from the sun-room is moved around the house.

During the summer, the light is blocked during the day, and the area is allowed to cool at night. The cool mass will help to lower the temperature in the house during the day. Appropriate overhangs can block the summer sun, but let the winter sun shine in as well.

• Xeriscaping
  

Simply put, this is landscaping to reduce additional water needs. Often through the use of native plants, less maintenance and water is used.

• Intelligent house systems to reduce energy usage

Most of us know that in a two story house, altering the HVAC vents from summer to winter will allow better distribution of air. Window treatments can be used as additional insulators. Operating heating, cooling and water heating systems only during times that they are being utilized also saves resources.

While none of these things are terribly difficult to accomplish, most of us don't fully utilize them because we don't think about it, or it isn't convenient. And, further efficiencies can be obtained from intelligent automation.

• Landscape design to reduce heating a cooling loads
  

This has nothing to do with xeriscaping. Through using deciduous tress (with leaves that drop during the winter) the summer sun can be partially blocked from heating the home and yard, but during the winter, the rays of the sun will heat the home and yard. Shrubs and evergreens can be used to block winter winds that cool part of the exterior of the house. In warmer climates, using the right vegetation can reduce the heat island effect of driveways and sidewalks.

None of these things are huge, and all are possible right now for reasonable cost. I know that I didn't have to work with a budget, but oddly, I think that the biggest part of the benefits are available with simpler technologies. The exotic technologies may produce additional savings, but I don't think they are cost efficient... and in some cases I don't think they are attractive or practical.

Is a clear sky blue?

Sitting down this morning getting my Fox News fix, I noticed a release by the NAR that has me re-thinking a position I have taken...

Here is the link to the NAR news release. To summarize, the position the NAR takes is that housing will start to pick up in 2008. Existing home sales will rebound, although new homes will lag for another year.

Well, I've been saying this for a few months (go back and look at my Gwinnett Market Reports if you don't believe me). And so, when the NAR says the same think, I need to re-assess my position.

Why, you ask?

Because the NAR started calling the bottom of the market and the rebound before the decline was in full swing. And that really ticks me off. I don't have a problem with putting a good spin on things. We all do it, and sometimes we just need to in order to remind people about the other side of the coin. Whether it is a Buyer's Market or a Seller's Market, it is a crappy market for half of the people in a transaction...

But, it's one thing to put your best foot forward, and quite another to say that everything is always perfect. I run numbers for my market... and I make predictions based on those numbers. When I am wrong, I acknowledge it, and when the news just sucks, I say it. I don't try to speak out of both sides of my mouth just to make sure that I'm covered.

Right now, if the NAR announced that skies were blue, I'd run outside to check.

Keep in mind that I am not only a member of my association in order to have access to the MLS (we don't have to be), but rather, I am currently active in the association (until tomorrow's meeting, I am the chairman of the RPAC committee). No, I'm not being deposed... my tenure is coming to a scheduled end.

So, what do we do about it?

Of the 33.548 real estate agents on A/R... as of a moment ago... I'd bet that the vast majority are members of the NAR. I know that the majority are ticked at the NAR over one thing or another. But, I would bet there are about 50 that are actually active in their local association. I bet half don't even know who is President of their local association, much less the state association.

So, get involved. Make your voice heard [I have NO idea this post was going this way].

And, when the NAR issues these reports, grab some salt, and run your own numbers.

Thoughts on the Foreclosure Bailout

Everyone has weighed in with their opinions about the proposed government bailout of some of the 1.2 million people facing foreclosure... I guess I'll toss out my nickel (side thought... if everyone that has offered an opinion actually gave up the nickel, WE could bail out the people facing foreclosure...)

I don't like government bailouts.

I'm a libertarian (I haven't joined the party, so I'm not a Libertarian). I don't believe that government has a role in every part of our lives. I think that the US Constitution is the guideline for the structure of our laws... and the role the government is supposed to play.

Even after looking at the Constitution twice, I can't find where it says that people that make bad decisions... mistakes even... should be bailed out by the government. And, that is what we are dealing with here. Banks lowered their standards for giving away money (and that is what they were doing, largely, giving away money). And consumers took out loans that they really didn't have a plan to repay.

So, who are the real victims here?

Is it the banks that are getting stuck with absolutely crappy loan portfolios? No. They got exactly what they deserved when some of them were driven right out of business.

Is it the borrowers that bought $500,000 homes and thought that their payments would remain at $1600/mo. forever? Or maybe the people that refinanced and bought bass boats and Suburbans with their "equity? Maybe it's the investors that bought property with 125% loans and then tried to put in minimal effort for maximum return with a flip? No, nope, and nuh-uh. Again, they ignored the risks so that they could do what they wanted to do. Being able to get someone to finance them only served as justification that their desires were not out of line.

Is it the mortgage backed security buyers? It wasn't, until the government decided to change the terms of the securities they bought.

But what about the fraud and predatory lenders?

Even running rampantly, fraud only accounts for a small percentage of total loan volume. So, it isn't much different than the teacher making everyone put their heads down on the desk because one kid in the class shot a spitball. And, many of the "predatory lenders" aren't that predatory. Sure, it is fun to talk about greed (a term that is vaporous to define anyway) and taking advantage of people in precarious situations, but we need to also keep in mind that the risk/reward equation means that these borrowers presented a higher risk. As some states have found out, when they "clamp down on predatory lenders" and cap rates or otherwise try to control market forces, they end up limiting choices for the very people they are try to protect.

So, instead of writing sweeping legislation, it would be much more effective to enforce current laws against fraud.

So, where does that leave us?

It leaves us with the only real victims being the one group that isn't being protected. And those that made irresponsible decisions being rewarded for those decisions. Instead of finding the 60,000 loans that might actually involve fraud, and prosecuting the people responsible, the government is looking at "fixing" 1,200,000 loans. And, while "fixing" those loans, nullifying agreed upon contracts.

It is a bad precedent.

Market Update for Gwinnett County, October/November 2007

As I announced back in the middle of November, there is going to be a format change beginning this month. I will be including Absorbtion Rates in the market reports now. This will give a clearer picture of the direction of the market, as well as help bring a bit of focus to the rest of the numbers. I’m also going to be stressing the listed/solds percentage to help give a better picture of the market conditions.

I also have corrected number for both September and October. The preliminary numbers are in for November, but they don’t look right yet, so while I will mention them, I would like to remind you that they aren’t solid numbers.

Let’s start with some of the classic information that I have been including on these reports.

The New listings data shows that new listings for both October and November were up about 2% vs. last year, while September was down about 5%. I’d really like to see the listings vs. last year drop to the negative numbers, because there is simply too much inventory for the level of buyer activity I see. However, because the final numbers aren’t in for November, I expect to see a rise in listings… exactly the opposite of what I want to see.

Solds for September were down 43%!!! Those numbers are holding up to the corrections. I hope that it isn’t right, but I have to assume now that it is close. However, the October number rebounded significantly. Closings were down 18% vs. last year. That is the best showing (vs. the same month the previous year) since April. To moderate, though, October 2006 was a particularly crappy month. November is down by 65%, but I know that those numbers will change in the coming weeks, so we will be revisiting that. With the exception of the August to September number*, it is easy to see the correlation between pendings and solds from month to month. If the pattern holds, I expect to see the closed transactions down around 20% for November when all is said and done.

While the preliminary numbers came in for November, both October and September average prices were changed. Those numbers are (with change from last year): September, $229,428 (-0.8%) October, $226,820 (+1.5%) November, $238,548 (+2.3%). I expect to see the November average drop to be more inline with the other numbers… but I can’t begin to guess where it will fall.

Now, let’s talk about the new numbers.

The uglier number is the percentage of solds vs. new listings. Let me start by saying that I have been tracking this number since January, 2005. The highest percentage since then was 85% in December of 2005. For the last few months, that number has been hanging around the mid 30% range. This means that one house sells for every three that come on the market. August through November show the percentage of solds vs. new listings to be 37%, 32%, 32%, and 19%. The November number is ugly, but I think I will need to revise that to be inline with the other numbers when I see something that is more final.

The Absorption Rate is how long, given the current market conditions, it would take to sell the current market inventory… assuming that there were no more listings added. This number is used by all types of businesses to gauge market activity vs. inventory levels. I’m not going to go into the formulas, because I don’t want to tell me competitors everything… I calculate the numbers for the 12 month average, six month average and three month average. Comparing the numbers gives an indication of the market heating or cooling. A balanced market usually has about a six month supply. Because these numbers are based upon November information, I expect all of them to drop slightly, with the most visible drop to be the three month average.

The 12 month average is 11.3 months of supply. The six month average slows to a 12.2 month supply of homes, while the three month average shows a 17.3 month supply. Of course, the three month average is the most volatile, and I expect to see it dropping to around 14 months after the rest of the numbers are in. That still isn’t good, but it is a bit better.

What that tells me is that the market is still cooling a bit, but it is close to flattening. It isn’t plummeting. I don’t have as much depth with these numbers as I do with the other numbers I’ve collected. My MLS doesn’t offer the historical statistics that I need for this calculation like they do for the other calculations.

I am still looking to see the market turn around in the spring. Of course, we won’t know it has turned until it has started back up. The best deals will be had before the turn. After the turn, investors and other buyers will have already started to bid up properties.

*The August to September pending to closed sale anomaly was a direct result of the Sub-prime Mortgage Meltdown. Many buyers found themselves unable to close after being approved for loans. After that time, the numbers went back to a more normal percentage of pending sales that followed through to closing.

Thanks, and look forward to my next report during the first week of January. Happy Holidays.

I'd almost consider running to answer this question...

So, it's like this...

First, the video is only 27 seconds long, so feel free to watch.

Now, let me tackle the answer.

Jamie, there isn't a quick and easy answer to the question, but it looks like you think there should be from your video. But, let's look at the causes, and let's see if we can find some possible solutions.

Causes:

• The fed, trying to keep the economy rolling after the terror attacks of 9/11 kept rates low. Those low rates made a lot of people think about taking advantage of them to buy homes... lower rate, better payments.
  
• Consumers decided to take advantage of that opportunity to not only buy houses, but to tap the equity in their homes while refinancing, since they could cash out, and keep the same payment.
  
• Many of those consumers got greedy and wanted to get more than they really should have. Instead of getting another 30 year fixed when they refi'd, they chose to go after something wilder and instead of 5.25% for 30 years, they got an interest only ARM for 2.5%... and then bought a bass boat and a new Tahoe.
  
• Buyers got the same kind of greedy. About the same time they figured out that they could get a $400,000 house with a real loan, they found out they could get a $600,000 home with a mortgage that they had no business being in. But, they wanted it and didn't care.
  
• Other buyers also got greedy, but in a different way. They found out that they could get out of their apartment, and into a house without spending any money. They could buy a house with 100% financing. They didn't care about the terms... it was less than their rent.
  
• Some mortgage brokers got greedy, too. They put people into whatever worked for the moment without regard to the future ability to repay. As soon as the loan closed, it was sold... so who cares.
• Some agents got greedy as well. They actually suggested that buyers get something wild just to get a bigger commission.
  
• Back to the fed... They raised rates in order to cool inflationary issues. Those "exotic mortgages" started to get pretty exotic...

Solutions:

• Personal responsibility.
  

Do you really think that any of the above things should be fixed by the government? I mean really.

• The fed was doing the right thing to respond to the financial needs of the country. Technicians may argue about whether it was too much, too little, too early or too late... but it was the right strategy.
  
• Nothing wrong with refinancing for a better rate. Nothing wrong with taking out a little cash to make the house better.
  
• When people start paying off credit cards things get a little gray. As we move into Tahoes, bass boats, and vacations, we are leaving gray and heading towards dark. Doing with an exotic mortgage product is just plain stupid.
  
• Buying too much house because you just want to... and can find a mortgage product that will let you... just plain stupid.
  
• As much as I like first time buyers, and want EVERYONE to own a home, some people just aren't ready. Not understanding what you are committing yourself to is... not responsible. (I won't say stupid, because first time buyers NEED a break, and they need the guidance of responsible professionals).
• I think that loan originators that don't care about the future of those that they pawn off crappy, unsuitable products upon are crossing an ethical line. it isn't going from bad to good, either.
  
• Agents... same thing.
  
• Again, the fed did what they needed to do for the situation. Same arguments as the first point.
  

So, there is the answer to your question.

Now, on to your point that you didn't ask a question about...

Why has your neighbor's home been on the market for six months?

The price is wrong for the market, marketing, or condition. It isn't the same real estate climate as two years ago. The house needs to be priced where it belongs, not where they buyer hopes it will be. Perhaps they can't afford to sell it at the price it should be at. If so, maybe it is because they were covered above.

The short answer is that as President, I won't do much to "fix" this problem. I will, however, tell people that the government is not their Mommy, and they need to be responsible for their own actions. If there is a surgical way to make the actions of greedy mortgage originators and real estate agents illegal, I'll pursue it. But, as is often the case, broad legislation usually hurts more people than it helps.

Is that my whole minute?

House values UP!?!

What? Is this guy crazy? Take a look...

S&P Index Reveals Price Changes in 20 Markets
Prices of single-family homes in the third quarter fell 4.5 percent nationwide compared with a year ago.

It was the largest drop since the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index was begun in 1988.

“We are fast approaching the rate of price decline seen at the end of the 1990-1991 recession,” Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR, wrote in a research note. “The odds strongly favor blowing past this mark in coming months.”

Robert J. Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets and the founder of the index, says: “Most of the metro areas continue to show declining or decelerating returns on both an annual and monthly basis. All 20 metro areas were in decline in September over August. Even the five metro areas that still have positive annual growth rates – Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Portland, and Seattle – show continued deceleration in returns."

Here is the one-year change in the 20 metro areas included in the index:

• Atlanta: 0.4 percent
• Boston: -3.2 percent
• Charlotte: 4.7 percent
• Chicago: -2.5 percent
• Cleveland: -4.0 percent
• Dallas: 0.2 percent
• Denver: -0.9 percent
• Detroit: -9.6 percent
• Las Vegas: -9 percent
• Los Angeles: -7 percent
• Miami: -10 percent
• Minneapolis: -4.5 percent
• New York: -3.6 percent
• Phoenix: -8.8 percent
• Portland: 2.2 percent
• San Diego: -9.6 percent
• San Francisco: -4.6 percent
• Seattle: 4.7 percent
• Tampa: -11.1 percent
• Washington: -6.6 percent

Source: Standard & Poor’s (11/27/07)

Ok, the numbers aren't stellar. But, Please note that Atlanta is up 0.4% annually. I have been showing Gwinnett County to be even better than that. Obviously, real estate isn't crashing here, but as mentioned in the article, appreciation is slowing. I don't think it is going to slow much more on a year over year basis, but we always see a slowdown this time of the year.

It's still nice to know that we came in fifth of the twenty largest metro areas. It just goes to show that even in a weak market there are pockets of strength. Please feel free to contact me with any questions. Also, look for my Gwinnett County Market report early next week.

Housing Starts down slightly, but Multi-Family are up...

So, what does that mean? First, let me toss out the original story.

Daily Real Estate News | November 21, 2007

Home Starts Up, Mostly Due to Multi-Family
U.S. home builders broke ground on more apartment buildings in October, driving housing starts up 3 percent to an unexpected seasonally adjusted rate of 1.229 million, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.

But builders trimmed permits for future building projects by 6.6 percent. They also cut back 7.3 percent on single-family homes to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 884,000, the lowest level of single-family home building since the last recession in October of 1991.

The levels varied regionally. Home starts in the Northeast rose 8.5 percent overall, and starts of single-family homes rose 29.5 percent. Single-family starts in the Midwest were up 15.1 percent with the overall increase at 21.1 percent.

In the South, overall starts dropped 4.6 percent and single-family starts fell 19.5 percent. Starts in the West rose 5.8 percent overall but single-family home starts dropped 8.1 percent.

Source: Thomas Financial, Dennis Moore (11/20/07)

Here is the link to the story from the NAR.

Of course, I want to focus on the numbers for the South. Starts are down by 4.6%, but SFR (Single Family Residential) Starts are down by 19.5%. That tells me that MFR (Multi-Family Residential) is well up. Why would that be? Well, MFR is another way of saying rental property. So, if builders are getting more orders for rental properties, the buyers are confident that they will be able to fill those units. It also means that buyers are confident that they will be able to pay off those units with the tenants moving in to them.

I have previously mentioned that it was looking like rents were expected to increase faster than previously expected. The "Sub-Prime Mortgage Meltdown" would be the main reason. People that were on the edge of affording a home before the SPMM are out of the market now. That increases demand on rentals... until the supply catches up, the price will rise.

So, let me sum this up into a nice, neat package.

• If you are a credit-worthy buyer, this might be a good time for you to exploit that. The market has a LOT of inventory, and deals are to be found.
  
• If you aren't buying, look for rent to go up.
  
• If you don't know if you are able to get credit, talk to a reputable mortgage broker. They can tell you if you are able to qualify for something, and what the terms will be.
• Rates are still incredibly low.
  

I am a long way from saying that everyone needs to rush back in to the real estate market. If your credit is shaky, I would recommend you sit on the sidelines a while longer while fixing your credit and building up some cash. I would also still counsel you to talk with a mortgage broker. A good mortgage broker can tell you the real ways to increase your credit scores.

If you need any referrals to a good mortgage broker, feel free to contact me through my website.

But it's a tradition...

Thanksgiving is a time that we look back over the year and think of all of the wonderful things that we have to be thankful for. It is also a time for us to enjoy being with our families. And, being with family always gets the wayback machine firing on all cylinders...

So, while I was talking with my Mother about Thanksgiving meals, a few interesting things came up... not the first time.

I have spent my adult life being less than traditional. My ex-wife and I used to host our "Orphan Thanksgiving" feast every year. We had all of our friends... and their friends... that didn't have other family in town over for the Thanksgiving meal. We had some pretty big crowds. In order to satisfy the numbers, we often had other things with the turkey... like hamburgers, hot dogs, and lasagna. We would have a lot of the traditional foods, but there were always some "bonus foods."

After we divorced, I kept that little tradition alive for a while. I had friends over, but we skipped the turkey altogether. Pizza was the most prevalent dish served. Of course, the grill was fired up on occasion as well. Nothing says Thanksgiving like a grilled hamburger or hot dog.

Fast forward to this Thanksgiving...

The rest of the extended family was out of town. So, my lovely wife, beautiful child and I sat down for a Thanksgiving meal of... breakfast burritos. Not even turkey sausage in the burritos.

Of course, once again, my Mother was convinced I had committed a sacrilege. But, this is the same woman that used to make 20 courses for Thanksgiving... half of which NOBODY would eat. All in the name or tradition. Nobody wanted the mincemeat pie... but she made it for decades. (She goes out to eat with my step-father now).

"So, Lane, does this have ANYTHING to do with real estate?"

Since you asked... yes, yes it does.

There are a lot of things that real estate agents do because they are traditional. I do some of them occasionally, too. We hold open houses, place newspaper ads, fax things to people, and talk about being number one in customer service in our ads.

But, those aren't always productive. Open houses don't sell houses. Newspaper ads are shown to be a weak draw for a property (at best). I am working to be paperless, since all of the faxes make more paperwaste than anyone outside of this business can imagine. And, "1 is NOT the loneliest number" anymore... every agent in the country is number 1.

But, that is the way many agents have always done business.

According to the NAR, about 4% of us blog. Despite attending the convention last week where EVERYONE was talking about blogging, I don't think more than 10% ever will. And that will take a decade.

Customer focused websites? Client focused marketing? Rare at best. As an industry, we have gotten in to the habit of putting ourselves at the center of our universe.

It's a tradition.

If you are looking for a non-traditional agent, one that isn't afraid to turn things upside-down for better results, let me know.

GarageHomesUSA.

Get 10% off at Lowe's!

If so, I have a deal for you.

Sign up for my email list, and I'll send you a 10% discount coupon for Lowe's.

It's that easy. Seriously. Ok, it does mean that you have to give me your address, and your real email address, but here is what I can promise in return...

• I will NOT sell your information.
  
• I will NOT give away your information (except to Lowe's for the discount coupon).
• I will NOT trade your information.
  

This is what I plan to do once you give me your information:

• I will send the discount coupon.
• I will send occasional emails (I promise that I won't send anything more than a couple times a month... normally just once a month)
• I will give you updates on big things happening on my website.
• I will send you an occasional postcard or other piece of mail (again, once per month maximum).

Here is why I want to do this:

• I want your business.
• I want to keep my name in front of you, so that when you buy and/or sell a home in this area, you will think of me to assist you.
• I want you to think of me for a referral if you know someone buying and/or selling a property in another area.
• I want you to think of me if you know of someone else that is buying or selling a property here.

Here is what I ask:

• Please be thinking of buying or selling a property in Gwinnett or the surrounding area in the next six months or so.
• Consider me to be the real estate agent to help you with the transaction(s). This doesn't mean you are required to, it just means that you will give me a shot.
• Please don't be represented by another agent.

And, if you think that is all I want to offer, please think again...

• Client Gateway (for Buyers and Sellers)
• New Methods
• Performance history
• Real Pricing (Absorption Rate Pricing Analysis - for Buyer and Sellers)
  
• Appropriate Promotion (not just MLS and pray - for Sellers)
  
• Access to the right Presentation (We'll get you staged and ready to sell - for Sellers)

I look forward to hearing from you. I'd love to give away a bunch of these certificates.

Open Property Search for Gwinnett County, GA and surrounding

I've gone and done it now... I opened up the search capability on my website. Search the MLS without having to register or give up your private information.

As long as there have been real estate agents, we have been gatekeepers of information. In the early days, agents and brokers held their own listings. They wouldn't even share them with other agents and brokers. Then, somebody figured out that other agents had listings, too... and they might be willing to all cooperate and share... and EVERYBODY would benefit. And so the Multiple Listing Service was born. It was real estate brokers in a specific area cooperating with each other and making all of their listings available to each other.

It was... "The Book." I can remember back in the 1980s (and the book goes back WAY before that) going to the agent's office to see "The Book." It was guarded, and seldom allowed out of the office. It was updated every week or three... depending on the market. But, agents guarded it like a treasure. The information was power...

And then came the listing computer. I remember this as well (no, I wasn't in the business. I was a buyer). One actually had to go to the office of the agent to look at "The Terminal." It was on an intranet, and tied into the MLS. Agents could only see it at the office, and there were still books, but the listings were updated daily, and somewhat searchable on "The Terminal." But, if a buyer wanted to have access to new listings, the agent had to pour over the machine each day or every few days to see what was updated.

Then came "The Website." Soon, the listings were available via IDX (this is a data exchange where the listings are sent to all of the brokers that want them). Because the internet was still not widely adopted, and the information was prized, the only way to access "The Website" was through a broker's site... with a password... that one got by giving up their information.

Now, the information is out there. We all have it. I have it on one of my websites as an IDX feed.

When I surf, I hate putting in my private information. I want to be anonymous until I desire to give up my information. I assume that most web surfers are like me. So, I decided that I needed to give the same anonymity to my surfers that I want when I am out on the web. The Golden Rule and all that.

There was a little reluctance from some of those that were entrenched with the "control of information", but they have caved... Search away.

If you wish to give me your information, I'll be happy to put you on my email list. Or, you can get my RSS feed from my blog, confident that I am still in the dark as to your identity. If you want to look through my site and search the listings and then use another agent for the transaction, that's ok. I hope that you decide that I should represent you.

Enjoy.

Oh yeah... You can do the search through ANY of my websites. LaneGetsResults, LaneBailey, GarageHomesUSA or directly.

Gwinnett County Schools looking at a major redistricting

I'm a little late to the party on this, but I would bet that there are a lot of people that were even further out of the loop than me...

The Gwinnett County (GA) Schools are looking at a major redistricting. I have put them in the list based on the High School Cluster. Some of the schools affected are elementary, some are middle schools, others are high schools. The clusters that look to be affected are:

• Grayson
• Mill Creek
• Lanier
• North Gwinnett
• Central Gwinnett
• Dacula
• Grayson
• Archer
• Mountain View
• Collins Hill

Here is a link to the information on the Gwinnett County School System website.

It looks like there are a few Elementary Schools that will be affected in 2008, and then the bulk of the plan will be taking effect in 2009. In all, there will be 12 new schools added, and 3 replacement schools.

The Board of Education held public comment meetings on November 13th and 15th. They will be issuing their decision on December 13th.

While wandering a little deeper in the school system's website, I came across their future projections. On this page, I see that the school system projects (conservatively) that they will need 35 new schools before 2012. By my math, it looks like the recently proposed changes only cover 1/3 of that need, so I would expect more of the same.

So, he's hit the "But that's the way I want it to be" stage...

Many of you might know that I have a three (and a half) year old son. He has graced a variety of my posts, and is one of the primary inspirations for me being in real estate... but I digress... Often.

So, while it isn't the first time, I wanted to relay a little story involving the "Boy Wonder."

Upon my return from the NAR Convention, my wife promptly left town... to do a little scrap-booking with her mother. She left Mini-Me in my care for the weekend. During one of our dinners, he became impatient. It went something like this...

"Daddy, is dinner ready yet?"

"No buddy, I just started it... give me a few minutes."

"But, Daddy, I'm hungry nooowwwww."

"Well, a few minutes ago when I asked if you were getting hungry, you said that you weren't."

"Is it ready yet?"

"No."

"Yes it is!"

"No, it isn't... no matter how much you want to change it... it won't be ready until it is ready."

Seems simple enough, right?

So, Lane... why are you writing this on a real estate blog?

Simple. He isn't the only one that is prone to statements like that. I've been seeing a lot more of them in the last few months. Sometimes it is from those that lobby on our behalf. Other times it is from those inside the industry.

"Real estate sales are off by 15%"

"That isn't bad."

"The trends aren't pointing to a recovery yet. It could happen, but we can't know."

"Yes they are! Everything is hunky-dory. We are already seeing the recovery."

"No, it isn't... no matter how much you want to change it... it won't be ready until it is ready."

Let me make this clear. I believe that real estate will see a large scale recovery in the next year or so... but it might not. Then again, it could be sooner. Where I have the problem is when we are faced with a difficult market, some in the NAR, and many agents simply say that everything is great. One might almost think that they feel if they say it enough, it will be so. But, just as with the media talking of values "tumbling" when they drop a few percent, saying that there is "nothing to see here" when there clearly is... doesn't help make us look honest and transparent.

There are incredible opportunities. But, as investors know, there have to be risks. Those that get in BEFORE the recovery is piling away at full steam will get the best returns... and, as in the last cycle change, the last ones to the party just get to clean up and don't get to play in the fun.

Today is THE day! One Day Sale for 2324 at Tuscany in Midtown Atlanta

This is it. If you are in the area of the Tuscany condos in Midtown Atlanta (between Juniper and Piedmont and 8th and 10th streets) drop in. We have 6 units open today from 6 different agents. The unit I represent, #2324 in the Bocce building, is marked down $10,000 for today. Don't wait. It may not wait for you.

This is a GREAT place to live. Only a couple of blocks to a MARTA train station, close to Piedmont Park, a score of great restaurants and clubs, and all that Midtown Atlanta has to offer.

This is a great 1 bedroom/1 bathroom condo that also features a den/office. With 966 square feet (tax records) of interior room, and a 103 square foot patio (builder's plan), there is more space than in other 1bd/1ba floorplans.

This is a great top-floor unit with a view out to mid-town, overlooking Juniper Street. It features a lovely double sided fireplace between the living room and the den, halogen track lighting, and a huge walk-through closet in the master bedroom. It also features beautiful wood floors throughout, and luxurious solid surface countertops in the kitchen and bath.

All kitchen appliances will remain, as will the washer and dryer in the laundry room off of the kitchen. There is also a covered parking spot included with the unit.

Walk to Piedmont Park, or to one of the many restaurants in the area. Located between 10th Street and 8th Street, just one block off of Peachtree, Tuscany is incredibly convenient. While others are still fighting the traffic on I-75, I-85 or GA400, you can be home and relaxing in front of the TV, working out in the complex gym, or floating in the pool.

Welcome home. This rare floorplan is offered at $209,900. The seller is motivated.

Client Gateway for Buyers... a cool bonus.

One of the great features I offer to buyers is the Client Gateway. If you aren't familiar, it is a custom private webpage that lists all of the properties that meet the criteria we decide on. As new listings are entered into the MLS, they show up in the Client Gateway the next morning.

The example shown is a Gateway that I have set up to keep an eye on new listings of homes with 4 or more car garages in Gwinnett County, GA.

A great feature of the Client Gateway is the ability to organize the properties. While reviewing the properties in the Gateway, one can select "Like", "Possibility" or "Dislike". Properties that are shuffled to "Dislike" drop from the front of the site. Those labeled otherwise will have a bar showing that status. They can be arranged by price, age, number of bedrooms, subdivision or city name.

While surfing in the properties, aside from being able to class them, one may also map them, email them to a friend or family member, make notes or send a message to me about the property.

We've long had the ability to send clients listings as they came on the MLS, but this is a MUCH better way than the old email system. Under the old email system, each day there would be a new email. If one liked one of the listings, then they couldn't delete the mail, or they needed to print out the listing for filing. Now, they are much easier to organize and retrieve.

The Client Gateway is just another great service I offer my buyers. If you are interested in having a Client Gateway to track properties you may be interested in buying, let me know. I'm happy to set one up for you while we work together. I look forward to hearing from you. Drop in to my website and send me a message.

What do you want?

I just have a question.

I'm curious what you are looking for in your next house. You don't have to be in the market right now. I'm just curious how the real world stacks up to the National Association of REALTORS(R) Buyer Profile surveys. I'm not going to list the attributes that they have pointed to, because I don't want to pollute the results. Besides, I have written about the NAR surveys previously.

Feel free to comment, or even email me it you'd prefer.

One Day Sale!!! For a condo... And an Uber Open House!

I'm sure I'll post up about it again later in the week, but mark your calendar for November 11th.

The Tuscany is a condo development in Midtown Atlanta between 8th and 10th streets (there isn't a 9th street there) and between Juniper and Piedmont. It has a decided Mediterranean style (ya think? It is named Tuscan, not Canadian) with tile roofs and plaster exterior walls. Inside, there are a variety of floorplans, and we will have resale units of most of them, ranging from 675 square foot one bedroom units, up to 1181 square foot two bedroom condos. In all, there are twelve units for sale in this desirable complex. We will have at least seven of them open on November 11th.

Unit #2324, that I have listed is a one bedroom with an additional den. According to tax records (all of the quoted Sq. ft. are from tax records), this unit is 966 square feet. The pictures all over this post are from #2324. It has a spacious master suite with a walk through closet. The kitchen is off of the living room and dining area, allowing a more open view between rooms. The kitchen also features solid surface counter-tops and a eat-in bar. There are wood floors throughout the condo. For more, look at my previous blog post about #2324.

Looking over the railing of the top level balcony, one looks down on Juniper. It exemplifies just how close to the center of it all this is. It's a block and a half to a MARTA rail station. Piedmont Park is just a couple of blocks away. If nightlife is the thing, there is a plethora of clubs along Peachtree and Crescent between 11th and 14th streets (Vision, Twisted Taco, Front Page News, Opera, Club Metro and others). There are also great restaurants like Spice, Mitra, Park Tavern and the Vortex.

And, on November 11th, the seller will be taking $10,000 off of the price of this great condo in a fantastic location. Macy's does it, we can too. You could be in for Christmas... or even Thanksgiving. It is available for immediate sale.

Stop in on November 11th (next Sunday). We'll be holding it open from 2 until 5. We look forward to seeing you there.

You can also stop in to www.955Juniper2324.LaneBailey.com to see more.

Market Update for Gwinnett County, September 2007

Below are the numbers for September 07. Before getting into the numbers, I would just like to mention again that I will now be working to post numbers right at the beginning of each month for the month that ended 30-35 day prior. I would love to be able to post up the October numbers at the beginning of November, but what I am seeing is changes are happening through-out the following month.

At this time I will be updating the September report.

September prices are pointing down for the first time since February when compared to the same month a year ago. September looks to be down 3% from September 06 (For comparison, Feb 07 was down 0.2% from Feb 06). I have been saying that I think we need to see a drop in prices to spur buyers into action. I still feel we need to see this price drop for a couple of months before buyers start to get excited. Let’s see what October, November and December hold. Currently we are up 2.6% vs. last year as a twelve month average. Last month, we were up 2.9% for the same period. This might also be partly a function of some of the new home sales on the higher end of the market. I would really like to see this flatten a little, as I think it would spur a little more buying.

Time on the market is also still trending up vs. last year. We are up to 90 days in September. That is 3 weeks (21 days) more than this time last year. Last month was 88 days on market, but that was also 18 days more than August 2006. May sales were the lowest this year at 76 days on the market. In fact, May was the lowest since last October (2006) when the DoM was 72 days. May and June of 2006 were in the mid sixties.

The one "bright spot" that I see is a 6% reduction in new listings compared to last year. Of course, to offset that, there is a 61% decrease in closed sales and a 34% decrease in pending sales (homes under contract). I really need to see another month to sort that out.

I think we are in the midst of two serious phenomena. First is the Sub-prime Mortgage Meltdown. I’ve been talking about it for a few months, but I think that in September, we saw the full effects for the first time. Buyers that were marginal even six months ago are out of the market now. Buyers that are solid are still solid. If anything, those buyers are in a stronger position. Since there are fewer buyers, they have increased strength with sellers. Furthermore, I’m starting to see lenders trying to court those strong buyers. Face it, mortgage lenders make money by loaning money. They can only stop writing for so long before they need to look at making money again. Obviously the marginal buyers aren’t popular with the secondary market, so getting “A paper” mortgages back into the stream will become more of an imperative… and so I still expect to see rates slide a little for the best buyers. I am also seeing creative options creeping back in to the market. If Washington can keep its grubby fingers out of the market, and not try to “fix” it, we should be seeing a balance and recovery in that segment next spring. The second issue we are facing is the seasonal slowdown we see each fall. I will step out on a limb and say that there is an amplification this year because of the overall market health… or lack thereof.

I think it is getting to be time to say that smart investors need to get back in the market. Buy & Hold strategies will be heavily rewarded in the long run. Prices are good, rates are kicking for those with good credit. There might be a slight easing of prices in the coming months, but I wouldn’t count on it, and we won’t know that we’ve hit bottom until we are off of it.

Finally, remember that we can only get an accurate look in the rear-view mirror. We will only KNOW there has been a change in the market when we see it has already changed. We’ll know that change has taken place when we see all of the best deals are already gone. Currently, I can’t get an accurate picture of overall market activity for at least 30 days after the end of the month. That means that the market could be well into a turn before the numbers will bear it out. And, while I don’t know that we should expect increasing values terribly soon, I don’t think prices will drop much either.

When the market turns, I believe it will turn with force. I am basing this on the fact that we are seeing rising rents and a lot of hold-out buyers. That means that when we hit the tipping point, there will be a ready source of buyers. They won’t trickle in as much as rush back in to the market. The bigger question is when we have a market turn, once the pent-up demand is released, how long will the strength last. I think that the market will be more balanced after the initial surge.

Wandering through the DoJ website

What is it going to take to make them happy? Did someone at the DoJ have an unsatisfactory experience with a real estate agent? Or is it simply that they know our approval ratings are down there with our Democrat led Congress (which would love to have even the dismal ratings of George W. Bush), so we are an easy target?

There is an interesting report called "Competition in the Real Estate Brokerage Industry" that is a pretty interesting read... ok, not that interesting as a read, but interesting to look through because of the way things are presented. I'm going to give my personal impressions after spending the morning looking through it online.

• They really don't like full service brokerage. At every opportunity the report bashes full service brokers.
  
• The data that they use often contradicts what they are trying to point out. Some examples of this would be that there isn't sufficient competition in the industry either at the brokerage level or at the sales agent level. But, the report begins by stating that there are no significant barriers to entry to the sales agent level, and few barriers to entry for the brokerage level. It also states that there is a lot of fluidity in the industry. Finally, it states that competition is fierce... but apparently not fierce enough, because it says that competition is needed to bring prices down for consumers.
  
• More and more consumers are choosing to utilize full service brokerage models... even though there are more brokerages offering other than full service options.
  
• There are very few mentions of limited service brokerages offering fewer services for consumers... but plenty of mentions of consumers saving money by utilizing flat-fee or limited service brokerages.
  
• Commission rates have been going down, but not fast enough for the DoJ. Because home prices were rising, average commissions were still increasing. But, because of the low barriers to entry, the increased competition led to the pie being split more ways. One has to wonder if the DoJ wouldlike to see more agents (more competition) or fewer agents (less competition, but perhaps ?more reason to cut commissions?).
• The DoJ asserts that the MLS is imperative to consumers, but decries the fact that it is owned privately.
  

I was really disappointed. There are so many contradictions, yet in EVERY case, the DoJ asserts that the real estate industry is flawed. The price that is agreed, even though there is fierce competition from many players, must not actually be fair... and is a result of a restraint of competition. The restraint of competition is because there are too mazny competitors...

It goes on...

I think there is someone at the DoJ that dealt with a crappy agent and has decided to go after the entire industry.

Does advertising need to be "good" to be effective?

Since I am in the process of getting my new website together, I have been on the track of marketing and advertising. I know that good SEO will bring some folks in, but I also know that if I don't market and advertise the site, it won't get the traffic it needs.

So, that brings me to this...

I was sitting in McDonalds today, having lunch with my son, and a commercial came on for Head On. If you haven't seen one of these, then you are living under a rock. These may be the worst commercials EVER made. Attack of the Killer Tomatos is a cinematic masterpiece compared to these commercials. Plan 9 from Outer Space has a complex plot, as well as high production value compared to these ads.

"Head On, apply directly to the forehead" is repeated around 300 times in 30 seconds.

Terrible commercial. But, not only is this goop coming off the shelf as fast as they can make it, but they have spun off several other products. And... this is very important... I'm talking about it. Viral marketing. And it is the WORST kind of virus.

Stupid ad, and stoopid effective (for those not up on the latest groovy culture, "stoopid" is good).

So, I ask the question, does advertising need to be good to be effective?